{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f48754b-9758-4f8d-96c8-b224e88c6ee3", "symbol": "688559", "name": "Hymson Laser Technology Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.003, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.869, "architecture_energy": 73.708, "architecture_maturity": 22.373, "architecture_confidence": 71.219, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.38, "rotation_up": 8.04, "upward_expansion": 15.51, "deceleration": 38.02, "rotation_down": 76.13, "downward_expansion": 88.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.955333, 54.060182, 58.783667, 58.917419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.450001, "trend_reference": 59.061333, "distance_from_trend": -0.179666, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.78816, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217699, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.027808, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161765, "excess_performance": -0.118561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179666, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078923, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.217699, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.447115, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.39491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.205789, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60829018, "relative_activity": 1.393868, "balance": 1.205789, "dry_up": 1.479436, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.204477, "annualized_volatility": 0.775245, "from_high_reference": -0.407629, "from_low_reference": 0.649642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.061333, "fair_value_reference": 39.78816, "structural_low": 36.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023434, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.284982, "worst_return": -0.051552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.124214, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.13726, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.489011, "worst_return": -0.202247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.032642, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.152677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214652, "worst_return": -0.279936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 41.799999, "volume": 68509886, "typical_volume": 42636839.15, "trend": 59.283, "fair_value": 39.811087, "relative_strength": -14.621728, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.168307, "energy": 41.522686, "activity_lines": [ 52.693333, 60.129454, 61.529857, 60.664602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.799999, "volume": 62283007, "typical_volume": 43555790.2, "trend": 59.048333, "fair_value": 39.779442, "relative_strength": -13.289679, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.47101, "energy": 50.854915, "activity_lines": [ 47.185999, 56.340363, 59.852381, 59.601183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.450001, "volume": 60829018, "typical_volume": 43640455.45, "trend": 59.061333, "fair_value": 39.78816, "relative_strength": -5.027808, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.868708, "energy": 73.708471, "activity_lines": [ 45.955333, 54.060182, 58.783667, 58.917419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }