{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f4b260c-0b23-422e-ba45-c0d46ed32454", "symbol": "BDX", "name": "GSH Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.034, "architecture_energy": 67.125, "architecture_maturity": 17.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.608, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.67, "rotation_up": 11.55, "upward_expansion": 14.18, "deceleration": 37.82, "rotation_down": 71.44, "downward_expansion": 89.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1658, 0.1684, 0.174624, 0.175613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.162, "trend_reference": 0.177533, "distance_from_trend": -0.087495, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.171673, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.833747, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129032, "excess_performance": -0.283867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087495, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050624, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056346, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169915, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129032, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.356351, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 441000, "relative_activity": 0.0787, "balance": 0.356351, "dry_up": 0.091406, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059354, "annualized_volatility": 0.405853, "from_high_reference": -0.310638, "from_low_reference": 0.227273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.177533, "fair_value_reference": 0.171673, "structural_low": 0.132, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.005823, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017407, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.236025, "worst_return": -0.12234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.035858, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.012307, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.2375, "worst_return": -0.106383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026667, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.003727, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.04321, "worst_return": -0.06383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035294, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10929, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { 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0.171846, "relative_strength": -15.34802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.468884, "energy": 44.017809, "activity_lines": [ 0.1728, 0.176382, 0.178876, 0.179209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.17, "volume": 230900, "typical_volume": 5555715.0, "trend": 0.1805, "fair_value": 0.171821, "relative_strength": -19.792639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.40595, "energy": 39.534475, "activity_lines": [ 0.172267, 0.174745, 0.178157, 0.178445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.17, "volume": 885900, "typical_volume": 5595555.0, "trend": 0.179167, "fair_value": 0.171801, "relative_strength": -20.539494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.830292, "energy": 35.265411, "activity_lines": [ 0.171733, 0.173291, 0.1775, 0.177768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.162, "volume": 491000, "typical_volume": 5598710.0, "trend": 0.178233, "fair_value": 0.171724, "relative_strength": -24.357661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.086634, "energy": 48.097432, "activity_lines": [ 0.168533, 0.170545, 0.176048, 0.17666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.162, "volume": 441000, "typical_volume": 5603555.0, "trend": 0.177533, "fair_value": 0.171673, "relative_strength": -24.833747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.034491, "energy": 67.125166, "activity_lines": [ 0.1658, 0.1684, 0.174624, 0.175613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }