{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f4c86b4-33de-4476-b8ed-d7cd202f7e39", "symbol": "E1LV34", "name": "Elevance Health, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 84.093, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.346, "architecture_energy": 37.992, "architecture_maturity": 65.525, "architecture_confidence": 92.572, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.85, "rotation_up": 24.11, "upward_expansion": 63.33, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 31.37, "downward_expansion": 27.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 398.243992, 404.390276, 395.824406, 379.925507 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 396.459991, "trend_reference": 366.562894, "distance_from_trend": 0.081561, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 437.169689, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.093121, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.857753, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109341, "excess_performance": 0.166389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081561, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041159, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.093121, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075737, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048578, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109341, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.583333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.583333, "dry_up": 0.691244, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027095, "annualized_volatility": 0.373226, "from_high_reference": -0.090751, "from_low_reference": 0.376597 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 366.562894, "fair_value_reference": 437.169689, "structural_low": 288.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.030987, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.226716, "worst_return": -0.14759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002575, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.021054, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.092736, "worst_return": -0.053882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005653, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.020423, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.01668, "worst_return": -0.051487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010704, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.08541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055807, "worst_return": -0.015567, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.096303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007992, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06409, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050555, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111086, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043355, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.171259, "active": false }, 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"typical_volume": 74.15, "trend": 365.949672, "fair_value": 438.915152, "relative_strength": 3.863325, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.329911, "energy": 56.069895, "activity_lines": [ 409.566001, 410.146886, 387.730134, 374.097645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 396.459991, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73.6, "trend": 366.349367, "fair_value": 438.333331, "relative_strength": 3.71611, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.083033, "energy": 46.23343, "activity_lines": [ 404.090663, 408.723692, 390.910604, 376.066052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 396.459991, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73.45, "trend": 366.749062, "fair_value": 437.75151, "relative_strength": 1.577133, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.091787, "energy": 44.375086, "activity_lines": [ 400.31666, 406.804822, 393.625743, 378.008673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 396.459991, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 43.4, "trend": 366.562894, "fair_value": 437.169689, "relative_strength": 4.857753, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.346241, "energy": 37.991951, "activity_lines": [ 398.243992, 404.390276, 395.824406, 379.925507 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }