{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f4e243b-f6d1-435b-adcf-359d0f685e8f", "symbol": "BIDU80", "name": "Baidu, Inc.", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.128, "architecture_energy": 41.12, "architecture_maturity": 20.032, "architecture_confidence": 92.1, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.07, "rotation_up": 16.28, "upward_expansion": 5.26, "deceleration": 47.12, "rotation_down": 57.62, "downward_expansion": 78.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.569333, 4.606545, 4.804333, 4.870968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.54, "trend_reference": 5.046667, "distance_from_trend": -0.100396, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.544423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.945286, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.189286, "excess_performance": -0.381611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100396, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018413, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30693, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31509, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.394014, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28350117, "relative_activity": 0.881308, "balance": 0.394014, "dry_up": 1.065819, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0898, "annualized_volatility": 0.461801, "from_high_reference": -0.301538, "from_low_reference": 0.289773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.046667, "fair_value_reference": 4.544423, "structural_low": 4.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011628, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006162, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.316964, "worst_return": -0.118644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.143688, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.049145, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.180233, "worst_return": 0.107143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.389535, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.268683, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.389535, "worst_return": 0.389535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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5.016129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.58, "volume": 46845360, "typical_volume": 37267658.9, "trend": 5.116667, "fair_value": 4.544641, "relative_strength": -21.596366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.733149, "energy": 51.353265, "activity_lines": [ 4.657333, 4.774727, 4.907286, 4.981032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.52, "volume": 35992524, "typical_volume": 35751904.75, "trend": 5.107333, "fair_value": 4.544481, "relative_strength": -22.728792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.699195, "energy": 34.343735, "activity_lines": [ 4.625333, 4.700364, 4.869619, 4.942538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.54, "volume": 25954012, "typical_volume": 33283041.2, "trend": 5.082, "fair_value": 4.544452, "relative_strength": -21.469922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.866167, "energy": 32.979445, "activity_lines": [ 4.609333, 4.647455, 4.835762, 4.905935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.54, "volume": 28350117, "typical_volume": 32168234.95, "trend": 5.046667, "fair_value": 4.544423, "relative_strength": -20.945286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.128116, "energy": 41.119864, "activity_lines": [ 4.569333, 4.606545, 4.804333, 4.870968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }