{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f5f820b-dc27-4d08-8e86-38ad6e759b8b", "symbol": "WLDN", "name": "Willdan Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.196, "architecture_energy": 38.558, "architecture_maturity": 19.169, "architecture_confidence": 86.684, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.31, "rotation_up": 18.48, "upward_expansion": 6.81, "deceleration": 51.23, "rotation_down": 60.38, "downward_expansion": 80.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.046, 77.548727, 81.49619, 83.556215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 86.24, "trend_reference": 90.371667, "distance_from_trend": -0.045719, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.680481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.548837, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.495265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251389, "excess_performance": -0.438843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045719, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078053, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.548837, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251389, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.00724, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1893007, "relative_activity": 1.106496, "balance": 1.00724, "dry_up": 0.830638, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10603, "annualized_volatility": 0.654285, "from_high_reference": -0.370511, "from_low_reference": 0.333643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.371667, "fair_value_reference": 55.680481, "structural_low": 64.665, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.004537, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.007875, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.302701, "worst_return": -0.357418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075508, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.08369, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.59733, "worst_return": -0.463145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.19631, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.147752, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.44955, "worst_return": -0.288288, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.104874, "energy": 59.082725, "activity_lines": [ 78.924, 84.755455, 84.382952, 88.300602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.7, "volume": 1670474, "typical_volume": 1780444.45, "trend": 94.049, "fair_value": 54.654776, "relative_strength": -32.643245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.945784, "energy": 72.347828, "activity_lines": [ 75.490667, 82.026182, 83.343429, 86.840086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.63, "volume": 944819, "typical_volume": 1723350.85, "trend": 92.761, "fair_value": 54.994199, "relative_strength": -31.282404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.140331, "energy": 74.348147, "activity_lines": [ 73.607333, 79.569455, 82.375524, 85.458215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.53, "volume": 1175966, "typical_volume": 1695522.25, "trend": 91.49, "fair_value": 55.276571, "relative_strength": -35.090716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.890875, "energy": 78.336479, "activity_lines": [ 71.448667, 76.721636, 81.066429, 83.894925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.24, "volume": 1893007, "typical_volume": 1710812.9, "trend": 90.371667, "fair_value": 55.680481, "relative_strength": -21.495265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.196392, "energy": 38.55821, "activity_lines": [ 76.046, 77.548727, 81.49619, 83.556215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }