{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f612604-dd4a-429a-9882-a6729c58210b", "symbol": "IXJ", "name": "iShares Global Healthcare ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 48.649, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.221, "architecture_energy": 41.217, "architecture_maturity": 21.993, "architecture_confidence": 63.574, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.84, "rotation_up": 59.75, "upward_expansion": 52.82, "deceleration": 42.03, "rotation_down": 22.51, "downward_expansion": 13.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 1741.199992, 1731.60034, 1691.889272, 1683.169797 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1741.599976, "trend_reference": 1683.561161, "distance_from_trend": 0.034474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1662.41141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047635, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.851577, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.013147, "excess_performance": 0.067814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034474, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007774, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047635, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099011, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008516, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167695, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013147, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.659011, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61, "relative_activity": 0.190061, "balance": 3.659011, "dry_up": 0.801527, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024284, "annualized_volatility": 0.156936, "from_high_reference": -0.038275, "from_low_reference": 0.128309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1683.561161, "fair_value_reference": 1662.41141, "structural_low": 1557.358398, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020583, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003471, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.045688, "worst_return": -0.049865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.076601, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.182518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029204, "worst_return": -0.132938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.081799, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.170945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011166, "worst_return": -0.121109, "sufficient": false }, 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022031, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042099, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 400.65, "trend": 1685.991162, "fair_value": 1658.602705, "relative_strength": 1.419602, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.872419, "energy": 69.445399, "activity_lines": [ 1743.798665, 1716.103744, 1677.032844, 1676.057905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1740.0, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 337.65, "trend": 1685.374495, "fair_value": 1660.583606, "relative_strength": 0.730874, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.131153, "energy": 49.558007, "activity_lines": [ 1742.733333, 1724.700082, 1684.497964, 1679.542346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1741.599976, "volume": 61, "typical_volume": 320.95, "trend": 1683.561161, "fair_value": 1662.41141, "relative_strength": 0.851577, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.220631, "energy": 41.21655, "activity_lines": [ 1741.199992, 1731.60034, 1691.889272, 1683.169797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }