{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f64585b-ff3e-4dae-bd04-bf89b01a97b0", "symbol": "XPN", "name": "XPON Technologies Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.477, "architecture_energy": 43.991, "architecture_maturity": 65.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.983, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.87, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 26.32, "deceleration": 34.55, "rotation_down": 32.75, "downward_expansion": 62.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.010367, 0.010164, 0.010671, 0.011953 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.01, "trend_reference": 0.013717, "distance_from_trend": -0.27096, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.016644, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.399191, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.98712, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.52381, "excess_performance": -0.587515, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.27096, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063709, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.399191, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085339, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121209, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.52381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.197767, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1504416, "relative_activity": 0.422626, "balance": 3.197767, "dry_up": 0.472803, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088462, "annualized_volatility": 0.991711, "from_high_reference": -0.615385, "from_low_reference": 0.428571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.013717, "fair_value_reference": 0.016644, "structural_low": 0.009, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.040341, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.043099, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.066675, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.622642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.1625, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.212116, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.615385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.727273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", 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"relative_strength": -21.76445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.951047, "energy": 68.134792, "activity_lines": [ 0.009933, 0.009891, 0.011186, 0.012596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0105, "volume": 1681993, "typical_volume": 3709888.0, "trend": 0.013817, "fair_value": 0.017183, "relative_strength": -17.419109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.136521, "energy": 55.849117, "activity_lines": [ 0.010133, 0.009982, 0.010986, 0.012381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 2146089, "typical_volume": 3718316.45, "trend": 0.013817, "fair_value": 0.016907, "relative_strength": -15.794726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.599833, "energy": 60.574929, "activity_lines": [ 0.010467, 0.010173, 0.010864, 0.012199 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01, "volume": 1504416, "typical_volume": 3559689.45, "trend": 0.013717, "fair_value": 0.016644, "relative_strength": -25.98712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.476752, "energy": 43.990684, "activity_lines": [ 0.010367, 0.010164, 0.010671, 0.011953 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }