{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f65e348-59f5-476b-834d-066b7347d2ba", "symbol": "5364", "name": "Lealea Hotels & Resorts Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.721, "architecture_energy": 52.02, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.97, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.83, "rotation_up": 27.86, "upward_expansion": 16.45, "deceleration": 65.73, "rotation_down": 45.72, "downward_expansion": 75.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.738, 8.737818, 8.944476, 9.545247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.72, "trend_reference": 10.537333, "distance_from_trend": -0.172466, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.93656, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.583504, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -54.910631, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.321401, "excess_performance": -0.762773, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172466, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16736, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.583504, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005839, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.549106, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.321401, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402359, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 262633, "relative_activity": 0.370396, "balance": 0.402359, "dry_up": 0.420586, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048342, "annualized_volatility": 0.209018, "from_high_reference": -0.577724, "from_low_reference": 0.038095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.537333, "fair_value_reference": 20.93656, "structural_low": 8.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.025183, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062126, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.144639, "worst_return": -0.188546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.12746, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.165557, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.465565, "worst_return": -0.298226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.257306, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.340874, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.15427, "worst_return": -0.310811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 11.332, "fair_value": 21.381367, "relative_strength": -56.892873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.951648, "energy": 63.052641, "activity_lines": [ 8.744667, 8.773818, 9.346524, 10.137462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.59, "volume": 309732, "typical_volume": 731736.45, "trend": 11.123333, "fair_value": 21.264406, "relative_strength": -57.091691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.556959, "energy": 63.457849, "activity_lines": [ 8.696, 8.728909, 9.208381, 9.960559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.77, "volume": 263368, "typical_volume": 726238.65, "trend": 10.917333, "fair_value": 21.155398, "relative_strength": -54.379964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.630357, "energy": 60.67668, "activity_lines": [ 8.716, 8.728, 9.106, 9.808731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.83, "volume": 357149, "typical_volume": 725677.6, "trend": 10.716667, "fair_value": 21.047071, "relative_strength": -53.960698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.225417, "energy": 53.964734, "activity_lines": [ 8.744667, 8.743273, 9.023762, 9.674065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 8.72, "volume": 262633, "typical_volume": 709059.25, "trend": 10.537333, "fair_value": 20.93656, "relative_strength": -54.910631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.721148, "energy": 52.019892, "activity_lines": [ 8.738, 8.737818, 8.944476, 9.545247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }