{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f71ec57-3c33-4d15-b9d0-5523901c9094", "symbol": "HMU", "name": "HMS Bergbau AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.46, "architecture_energy": 54.907, "architecture_maturity": 7.669, "architecture_confidence": 88.559, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.05, "rotation_up": 15.99, "upward_expansion": 10.57, "deceleration": 39.88, "rotation_down": 57.45, "downward_expansion": 81.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.24, 41.678182, 41.90619, 42.463441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.299999, "trend_reference": 43.373333, "distance_from_trend": -0.070858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.07764, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.251704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138889, "excess_performance": -0.203529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043235, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218346, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051048, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182517, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051531, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.399636, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 932, "relative_activity": 0.423771, "balance": 6.399636, "dry_up": 0.281226, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040657, "annualized_volatility": 0.148987, "from_high_reference": -0.311111, "from_low_reference": 0.122563 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.373333, "fair_value_reference": 33.07764, "structural_low": 35.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.011441, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.049261, "worst_return": -0.077273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.044083, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.023832, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.009615, "worst_return": -0.054825, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.043438, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01247, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.009615, "worst_return": -0.096491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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18.831108, "activity_lines": [ 42.553332, 42.065453, 42.741904, 43.487741 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 42.5, "volume": 250, "typical_volume": 3409.55, "trend": 44.183333, "fair_value": 32.228127, "relative_strength": -10.511936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.718711, "energy": 17.017531, "activity_lines": [ 42.553332, 42.152726, 42.639047, 43.36301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 42.299999, "volume": 303, "typical_volume": 2768.6, "trend": 44.106666, "fair_value": 32.374868, "relative_strength": -14.811126, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.566613, "energy": 17.651539, "activity_lines": [ 42.446666, 42.230908, 42.537618, 43.241505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 41.900002, "volume": 323, "typical_volume": 2751.75, "trend": 44.023333, "fair_value": 32.519045, "relative_strength": -12.938589, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.173223, "energy": 24.000699, "activity_lines": [ 42.226667, 42.250909, 42.415714, 43.099139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.200001, "volume": 254, "typical_volume": 2569.65, "trend": 43.963333, "fair_value": 32.663982, "relative_strength": -10.594375, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.757625, "energy": 22.17004, "activity_lines": [ 42.186667, 42.298182, 42.340952, 42.981505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.200001, "volume": 877, "typical_volume": 2543.9, "trend": 43.783333, "fair_value": 32.802509, "relative_strength": -12.730014, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.80091, "energy": 29.514452, "activity_lines": [ 41.840001, 42.116364, 42.189047, 42.803225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.8, "volume": 411, "typical_volume": 2363.8, "trend": 43.583333, "fair_value": 32.944883, "relative_strength": -12.95661, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.204427, "energy": 34.410993, "activity_lines": [ 41.766667, 42.032727, 42.114285, 42.675269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.299999, "volume": 932, "typical_volume": 2199.3, "trend": 43.373333, "fair_value": 33.07764, "relative_strength": -18.251704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.459549, "energy": 54.907233, "activity_lines": [ 41.24, 41.678182, 41.90619, 42.463441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }