{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f75a5d6-cb1b-4197-ba38-ef163d86589f", "symbol": "600884", "name": "Ningbo Shanshan Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.855, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.029, "architecture_energy": 53.97, "architecture_maturity": 14.721, "architecture_confidence": 93.817, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.15, "rotation_up": 17.12, "upward_expansion": 10.4, "deceleration": 43.12, "rotation_down": 56.77, "downward_expansion": 81.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.35, 12.558364, 13.393191, 13.691591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.42, "trend_reference": 13.939667, "distance_from_trend": -0.109017, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.134044, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115498, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.339943, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.034965, "excess_performance": 0.008239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109017, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012981, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.115498, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369115, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083399, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31375, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034965, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276459286, "relative_activity": 0.754699, "balance": 0.522318, "dry_up": 0.84512, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091292, "annualized_volatility": 0.426992, "from_high_reference": -0.312673, "from_low_reference": 0.217647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.939667, "fair_value_reference": 11.134044, "structural_low": 11.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.011565, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.021338, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.313298, "worst_return": -0.216608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.022599, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.052844, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.477093, "worst_return": -0.252128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.080052, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.097431, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.21643, "worst_return": -0.2256, "sufficient": true }, { 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"mixed", "direction": -52.582332, "energy": 61.266017, "activity_lines": [ 12.794, 13.422182, 14.077286, 14.139527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.77, "volume": 272384865, "typical_volume": 390873071.7, "trend": 14.068, "fair_value": 11.176897, "relative_strength": -8.495418, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.007419, "energy": 76.400227, "activity_lines": [ 12.352667, 13.004545, 13.836524, 13.987979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.31, "volume": 372485623, "typical_volume": 382400553.6, "trend": 14.01, "fair_value": 11.162673, "relative_strength": -5.834345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.829707, "energy": 70.88438, "activity_lines": [ 12.214667, 12.774545, 13.663, 13.874559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.73, "volume": 316997570, "typical_volume": 373804502.75, "trend": 13.976, "fair_value": 11.149007, "relative_strength": -3.323182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.340712, "energy": 68.300421, "activity_lines": [ 12.319333, 12.675091, 13.538524, 13.791979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.42, "volume": 276459286, "typical_volume": 366317041.5, "trend": 13.939667, "fair_value": 11.134044, "relative_strength": -8.339943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.028602, "energy": 53.970012, "activity_lines": [ 12.35, 12.558364, 13.393191, 13.691591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }