{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f77f7d0-952b-42b3-9e31-478180af9c90", "symbol": "BCE", "name": "BCE Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.397, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.224, "architecture_energy": 44.427, "architecture_maturity": 30.47, "architecture_confidence": 87.96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.01, "rotation_up": 20.55, "upward_expansion": 6.15, "deceleration": 59.1, "rotation_down": 55.09, "downward_expansion": 79.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.962, 22.098985, 22.77715, 23.251549 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.75, "trend_reference": 23.797289, "distance_from_trend": -0.044009, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.832426, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.514137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069775, "excess_performance": -0.195399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044009, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119324, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00563, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135141, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069775, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.859895, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26770812, "relative_activity": 1.49884, "balance": 0.859895, "dry_up": 1.193188, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050244, "annualized_volatility": 0.196533, "from_high_reference": -0.129017, "from_low_reference": 0.090081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.797289, "fair_value_reference": 25.832426, "structural_low": 20.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.016446, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.001433, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.12766, "worst_return": -0.109652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.012306, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.048731, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.200797, "worst_return": -0.107085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.020353, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.040601, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.103926, "worst_return": -0.146994, "sufficient": true 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23.761517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.84, "volume": 20847368, "typical_volume": 17581631.85, "trend": 23.896236, "fair_value": 26.063532, "relative_strength": -14.701948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.863588, "energy": 81.053849, "activity_lines": [ 21.873333, 22.663064, 23.241302, 23.627927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.3, "volume": 16742880, "typical_volume": 17557976.05, "trend": 23.857005, "fair_value": 25.979341, "relative_strength": -15.961104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.277434, "energy": 84.368889, "activity_lines": [ 21.584, 22.321872, 23.010269, 23.460428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.68, "volume": 20885168, "typical_volume": 17586946.6, "trend": 23.810614, "fair_value": 25.902967, "relative_strength": -15.037501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.135237, "energy": 74.057052, "activity_lines": [ 21.553333, 22.089485, 22.835009, 23.319976 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.75, "volume": 26770812, "typical_volume": 17861016.65, "trend": 23.797289, "fair_value": 25.832426, "relative_strength": -13.514137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.223598, "energy": 44.427376, "activity_lines": [ 21.962, 22.098985, 22.77715, 23.251549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }