{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f80367b-6f6e-4aa0-8f0b-6d7d9cfbb4d6", "symbol": "MUD", "name": "Mud & Hound Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 89.303, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.722, "architecture_energy": 42.318, "architecture_maturity": 30.93, "architecture_confidence": 72.773, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.21, "rotation_up": 58.59, "upward_expansion": 78.36, "deceleration": 59.4, "rotation_down": 16.84, "downward_expansion": 5.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.892, 0.87, 0.807905, 0.78286 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.9, "trend_reference": 0.734, "distance_from_trend": 0.226158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.305064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310379, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.528056, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.343284, "excess_performance": 0.150959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.226158, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310379, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179909, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005281, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.285458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.343284, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.369985, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112300, "relative_activity": 1.091404, "balance": 0.369985, "dry_up": 1.272657, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131624, "annualized_volatility": 0.653905, "from_high_reference": -0.181818, "from_low_reference": 1.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.734, "fair_value_reference": 1.305064, "structural_low": 0.47, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.014322, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.088235, "worst_return": -0.059829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009804, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00351, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.051282, "worst_return": -0.030075, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.088235, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.060249, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.135135, "worst_return": -0.047619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.856667, 0.785091, 0.756857, 0.734839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.95, "volume": 242700, "typical_volume": 99210.0, "trend": 0.706667, "fair_value": 1.33141, "relative_strength": 1.316458, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.031479, "energy": 75.136778, "activity_lines": [ 0.902, 0.820727, 0.775571, 0.75129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.89, "volume": 144500, "typical_volume": 104315.0, "trend": 0.715, "fair_value": 1.322885, "relative_strength": -4.18467, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.571598, "energy": 73.051546, "activity_lines": [ 0.910667, 0.841455, 0.787667, 0.763118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.84, "volume": 24300, "typical_volume": 98050.0, "trend": 0.719, "fair_value": 1.314038, "relative_strength": -7.538451, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.700892, "energy": 63.96072, "activity_lines": [ 0.893333, 0.851636, 0.794905, 0.771183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9, "volume": 112300, "typical_volume": 102895.0, "trend": 0.734, "fair_value": 1.305064, "relative_strength": 0.528056, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.721787, "energy": 42.318275, "activity_lines": [ 0.892, 0.87, 0.807905, 0.78286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }