{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f82a900-f5ee-40d2-a950-d2ec2bca27e9", "symbol": "900905", "name": "Lao Feng Xiang Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.469, "architecture_energy": 25.774, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.935, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.68, "rotation_up": 29.7, "upward_expansion": 21.67, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 20.6, "downward_expansion": 55.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.991819, 2.952096, 2.994612, 3.081122 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.002, "trend_reference": 3.197311, "distance_from_trend": -0.061086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.27251, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.082661, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.962624, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131366, "excess_performance": -0.088162, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054842, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.082661, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059255, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131366, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.908303, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1774626, "relative_activity": 1.348746, "balance": 0.908303, "dry_up": 1.361857, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035154, "annualized_volatility": 0.166652, "from_high_reference": -0.193104, "from_low_reference": 0.078529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.197311, "fair_value_reference": 3.27251, "structural_low": 2.783422, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.000934, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 3.8e-05, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.072775, "worst_return": -0.062343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.023045, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.019783, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.100292, "worst_return": -0.115453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.029171, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.058082, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.068439, "worst_return": -0.144547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -15.243905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.572388, "energy": 64.635342, "activity_lines": [ 2.88333, 2.915337, 3.046299, 3.144273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.965, "volume": 1471155, "typical_volume": 1375062.7, "trend": 3.242544, "fair_value": 3.274486, "relative_strength": -8.241873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.872727, "energy": 56.492216, "activity_lines": [ 2.914909, 2.915149, 3.027697, 3.125238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.968, "volume": 1249212, "typical_volume": 1267639.45, "trend": 3.226911, "fair_value": 3.274241, "relative_strength": -8.922958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.194677, "energy": 41.895737, "activity_lines": [ 2.937884, 2.919635, 3.011457, 3.107525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.028, "volume": 2672515, "typical_volume": 1318766.35, "trend": 3.212344, "fair_value": 3.273461, "relative_strength": -7.116966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.677806, "energy": 29.506409, "activity_lines": [ 2.976868, 2.938556, 3.003361, 3.094692 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.002, "volume": 1774626, "typical_volume": 1315759.65, "trend": 3.197311, "fair_value": 3.27251, "relative_strength": -9.962624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.46941, "energy": 25.774037, "activity_lines": [ 2.991819, 2.952096, 2.994612, 3.081122 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }