{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f83f407-89ca-4525-81f0-093ab2b56989", "symbol": "ARB", "name": "Accelerate Arbitrage Fund", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.227, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.77, "architecture_energy": 25.513, "architecture_maturity": 24.82, "architecture_confidence": 91.454, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.17, "rotation_up": 19.24, "upward_expansion": 2.65, "deceleration": 47.44, "rotation_down": 43.54, "downward_expansion": 73.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.394667, 27.414513, 27.442304, 27.496429 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.4, "trend_reference": 27.581671, "distance_from_trend": -0.006587, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.916643, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.658071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01223, "excess_performance": -0.132651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006587, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00286, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057236, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007309, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116581, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004028, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01223, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.501089, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7200, "relative_activity": 1.182266, "balance": 0.501089, "dry_up": 0.648604, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012361, "annualized_volatility": 0.033832, "from_high_reference": -0.051903, "from_low_reference": 0.049469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.581671, "fair_value_reference": 25.916643, "structural_low": 26.599965, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000514, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01092, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.002899, "worst_return": -0.001871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00506, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002891, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017703, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008292, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011686, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014002, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002119, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-29", "close": 23.67067, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-05", "close": 23.551491, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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27.43862, 27.50023, 27.558385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.51, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 15560.0, "trend": 27.61365, "fair_value": 25.872331, "relative_strength": -10.346284, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.847659, "energy": 15.853519, "activity_lines": [ 27.457639, 27.452258, 27.494532, 27.551547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.370001, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 14980.0, "trend": 27.603378, "fair_value": 25.883508, "relative_strength": -10.263929, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.893663, "energy": 21.758612, "activity_lines": [ 27.435409, 27.44027, 27.477112, 27.535828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.49, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 6835.0, "trend": 27.602668, "fair_value": 25.895408, "relative_strength": -9.715917, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.820143, "energy": 19.996918, "activity_lines": [ 27.449994, 27.451033, 27.47302, 27.528513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.299999, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 6520.0, "trend": 27.594631, "fair_value": 25.905736, "relative_strength": -9.523213, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.228881, "energy": 24.641069, "activity_lines": [ 27.396667, 27.4233, 27.452066, 27.508986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.4, "volume": 7200, "typical_volume": 6090.0, "trend": 27.581671, "fair_value": 25.916643, "relative_strength": -11.658071, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.77036, "energy": 25.513056, "activity_lines": [ 27.394667, 27.414513, 27.442304, 27.496429 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }