{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f8c3eb4-e27b-45ac-932d-cbc92cb54c2b", "symbol": "540", "name": "Tung Lok Restaurants (2000) Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.547, "architecture_energy": 66.303, "architecture_maturity": 36.464, "architecture_confidence": 78.158, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.5, "rotation_up": 16.91, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.52, "rotation_down": 73.39, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.054, 0.055273, 0.059714, 0.061723 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.054, "trend_reference": 0.065067, "distance_from_trend": -0.170082, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.097323, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.445146, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.455004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.289474, "excess_performance": -0.444309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117939, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.445146, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09829, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.40455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289474, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058405, "annualized_volatility": 0.636263, "from_high_reference": -0.470588, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.065067, "fair_value_reference": 0.097323, "structural_low": 0.054, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.037528, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.045836, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.19403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.032236, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.076182, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.264959, "worst_return": -0.19403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.073684, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.150973, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.186781, "worst_return": -0.289474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017094, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.031579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01087, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067416, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.340624, "energy": 72.30941, "activity_lines": [ 0.058667, 0.063, 0.064319, 0.066144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.054, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13720.0, "trend": 0.068633, "fair_value": 0.099573, "relative_strength": -40.858668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.836579, "energy": 71.823469, "activity_lines": [ 0.0558, 0.060982, 0.063262, 0.065138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.054, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9955.0, "trend": 0.067667, "fair_value": 0.0991, "relative_strength": -40.720102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.096575, "energy": 88.29975, "activity_lines": [ 0.054, 0.0592, 0.06229, 0.064194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.054, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9455.0, "trend": 0.0667, "fair_value": 0.098561, "relative_strength": -40.914858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.560878, "energy": 88.707011, "activity_lines": [ 0.054, 0.057655, 0.06139, 0.063312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.054, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6355.0, "trend": 0.065933, "fair_value": 0.097927, "relative_strength": -40.52581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.300056, "energy": 85.24154, "activity_lines": [ 0.054, 0.056345, 0.060529, 0.062492 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.054, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6355.0, "trend": 0.065067, "fair_value": 0.097323, "relative_strength": -40.455004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.547009, "energy": 66.303233, "activity_lines": [ 0.054, 0.055273, 0.059714, 0.061723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }