{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f9a3e0b-5a60-426a-be67-aa233cd236d6", "symbol": "002091", "name": "Jiangsu Guotai International Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.526, "architecture_energy": 36.325, "architecture_maturity": 67.022, "architecture_confidence": 87.558, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.41, "rotation_up": 27.13, "upward_expansion": 17.95, "deceleration": 45.97, "rotation_down": 35.51, "downward_expansion": 65.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.620667, 7.538909, 7.891512, 8.187067 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.62, "trend_reference": 8.525797, "distance_from_trend": -0.106242, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.370358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.377758, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138009, "excess_performance": -0.145409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106242, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061852, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033871, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058812, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.780108, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51893318, "relative_activity": 0.553051, "balance": 0.780108, "dry_up": 0.645172, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062293, "annualized_volatility": 0.31676, "from_high_reference": -0.302106, "from_low_reference": 0.068724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.525797, "fair_value_reference": 7.370358, "structural_low": 7.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.00905, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": 0.005378, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.162555, "worst_return": -0.109212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001156, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.007924, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.225352, "worst_return": -0.115542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027951, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024928, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.358974, "worst_return": -0.139281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.47, "volume": 68076335, "typical_volume": 101202355.1, "trend": 8.61713, "fair_value": 7.358732, "relative_strength": -13.351026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.762783, "energy": 54.310008, "activity_lines": [ 7.383333, 7.501392, 8.001311, 8.291579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.95, "volume": 65367228, "typical_volume": 96952532.55, "trend": 8.572797, "fair_value": 7.365717, "relative_strength": -6.217102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.246157, "energy": 41.8909, "activity_lines": [ 7.582667, 7.543215, 7.958482, 8.248538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.62, "volume": 51893318, "typical_volume": 93830940.2, "trend": 8.525797, "fair_value": 7.370358, "relative_strength": -14.377758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.526057, "energy": 36.324669, "activity_lines": [ 7.620667, 7.538909, 7.891512, 8.187067 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }