{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fa26331-a377-49dc-81e8-8cab4d0d448d", "symbol": "MTVW", "name": "Mountview Estates P.L.C.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.565, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.796, "architecture_energy": 21.59, "architecture_maturity": 76.482, "architecture_confidence": 89.219, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.87, "rotation_up": 24.11, "upward_expansion": 6.06, "deceleration": 43.29, "rotation_down": 42.92, "downward_expansion": 72.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 8703.333333, 8714.079571, 8763.874492, 8798.850364 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8800.0, "trend_reference": 8853.296417, "distance_from_trend": -0.00602, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9461.907433, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.069955, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.323359, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.005994, "excess_performance": -0.045242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00602, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.069955, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013554, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113234, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001375, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005994, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.663825, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2423, "relative_activity": 2.238544, "balance": 1.663825, "dry_up": 1.07585, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04333, "annualized_volatility": 0.137141, "from_high_reference": -0.137015, "from_low_reference": 0.053892 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8853.296417, "fair_value_reference": 9461.907433, "structural_low": 8350.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.003836, "positive_rate": 0.472222, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014058, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.127937, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.003932, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.042369, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.075221, "worst_return": -0.130769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.063712, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.049947, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.025074, "worst_return": -0.129955, 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8891.45895, "fair_value": 9491.203863, "relative_strength": -11.782307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.445179, "energy": 14.699591, "activity_lines": [ 8763.434867, 8744.495087, 8796.126175, 8828.613972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8500.0, "volume": 992, "typical_volume": 1098.4, "trend": 8869.876984, "fair_value": 9474.633876, "relative_strength": -14.583229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.780459, "energy": 26.631287, "activity_lines": [ 8679.898407, 8698.378238, 8765.238429, 8803.358556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8800.0, "volume": 2423, "typical_volume": 1082.4, "trend": 8853.296417, "fair_value": 9461.907433, "relative_strength": -11.323359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.79602, "energy": 21.589516, "activity_lines": [ 8703.333333, 8714.079571, 8763.874492, 8798.850364 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }