{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fa3aca4-afe9-4f55-84c7-d5c7141b8d7c", "symbol": "9569", "name": "AlMuneef Company for Trade, Industry, Agriculture and Contracting", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.86, "architecture_energy": 87.914, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.648, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.9, "rotation_up": 10.76, "upward_expansion": 22.04, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 83.39, "downward_expansion": 95.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.210667, 4.607333, 4.948047, 5.085441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.88, "trend_reference": 5.220777, "distance_from_trend": -0.256816, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.163999, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068203, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.72989, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.289377, "excess_performance": -0.257548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.256816, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068203, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217299, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330838, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289377, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.199829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146715, "relative_activity": 1.093302, "balance": 0.199829, "dry_up": 1.532372, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126487, "annualized_volatility": 0.500273, "from_high_reference": -0.353333, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.220777, "fair_value_reference": 4.163999, "structural_low": 3.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.049244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008996, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.186885, "worst_return": -0.088398, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.385246, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.393787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.385246, "worst_return": 0.385246, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.309836, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.312004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309836, "worst_return": 0.309836, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133005, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126761, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.077896, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186885, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.212121, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.212121, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051345, "active": true } ], 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.444047, "energy": 68.80546, "activity_lines": [ 4.789778, 5.001576, 5.191619, 5.254136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.09, "volume": 193937, "typical_volume": 126871.45, "trend": 5.269222, "fair_value": 4.166267, "relative_strength": -15.610921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.048947, "energy": 78.440064, "activity_lines": [ 4.495333, 4.811636, 5.076889, 5.175068 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.88, "volume": 146715, "typical_volume": 134194.4, "trend": 5.220777, "fair_value": 4.163999, "relative_strength": -21.72989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.859685, "energy": 87.913835, "activity_lines": [ 4.210667, 4.607333, 4.948047, 5.085441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }