{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fadb7aa-f65c-4a5e-b22b-aec7c3964a68", "symbol": "002283", "name": "Tianrun Industry Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.829, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.321, "architecture_energy": 50.252, "architecture_maturity": 9.151, "architecture_confidence": 48.462, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.93, "rotation_up": 17.5, "upward_expansion": 18.21, "deceleration": 44.92, "rotation_down": 61.19, "downward_expansion": 55.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.47, 8.900182, 9.705736, 9.746805 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.06, "trend_reference": 9.431519, "distance_from_trend": -0.039391, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.170984, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.468161, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.535851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.247993, "excess_performance": 0.240593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039391, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128746, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.468161, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.450325, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.095359, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.247993, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.098905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117166729, "relative_activity": 0.769058, "balance": 1.098905, "dry_up": 1.011205, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159739, "annualized_volatility": 0.722335, "from_high_reference": -0.31571, "from_low_reference": 0.581361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.431519, "fair_value_reference": 6.170984, "structural_low": 6.72, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026446, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.009044, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.162641, "worst_return": -0.103774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.145143, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.108234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.687603, "worst_return": -0.149371, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.070984, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.163642, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.680831, "worst_return": -0.211931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03252, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026446, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014423, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": 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"typical_volume": 164334858.0, "trend": 9.256982, "fair_value": 6.135679, "relative_strength": -0.408953, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.70085, "energy": 51.02249, "activity_lines": [ 8.508, 9.251818, 9.955207, 9.820389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.39, "volume": 153456173, "typical_volume": 155890101.8, "trend": 9.333575, "fair_value": 6.150693, "relative_strength": 7.199367, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.516648, "energy": 52.383478, "activity_lines": [ 8.345333, 8.981636, 9.7971, 9.764455 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.06, "volume": 117166729, "typical_volume": 152350939.7, "trend": 9.431519, "fair_value": 6.170984, "relative_strength": 9.535851, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.320647, "energy": 50.252367, "activity_lines": [ 8.47, 8.900182, 9.705736, 9.746805 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }