{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fb145eb-ecf0-437d-aca4-b7a6e873807b", "symbol": "LKFT", "name": "Lakefront Biotherapeutics NV", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.238, "architecture_energy": 54.433, "architecture_maturity": 16.372, "architecture_confidence": 74.866, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.24, "rotation_up": 16.28, "upward_expansion": 23.19, "deceleration": 38.44, "rotation_down": 65.97, "downward_expansion": 75.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.843333, 28.543455, 28.536286, 29.079591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 27.0, "trend_reference": 30.156, "distance_from_trend": -0.104656, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.69375, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120342, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.850647, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.190647, "excess_performance": -0.378101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104656, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034297, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120342, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248506, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001955, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190647, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.481977, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1351836, "relative_activity": 1.537897, "balance": 0.481977, "dry_up": 1.125098, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054401, "annualized_volatility": 0.242533, "from_high_reference": -0.285336, "from_low_reference": 0.051402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.156, "fair_value_reference": 30.69375, "structural_low": 25.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.005333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026787, "regime_survival": 0.3125, "best_return": 0.179199, "worst_return": -0.139459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.063267, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.13086, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.208915, "worst_return": -0.152772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.043584, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.145915, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127568, "worst_return": -0.135507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.154013, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065129, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.167537, "worst_return": -0.17787, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091946, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115672, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122609, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056952, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089213, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014996, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096314, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020134, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09834, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028335, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08767, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028892, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1003, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 38.81, "volume": 450805, "typical_volume": 880510.1, "trend": 40.533667, "fair_value": 64.762051, "relative_strength": -20.882337, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.898735, "energy": 34.437137, "activity_lines": [ 28.244, 28.189455, 29.11, 30.090022 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 28.3, "volume": 868221, "typical_volume": 767787.25, "trend": 30.951667, "fair_value": 31.256122, "relative_strength": -25.914191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.921096, "energy": 28.564776, "activity_lines": [ 28.356667, 28.195273, 28.918286, 29.913871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 29.48, "volume": 683809, "typical_volume": 777758.75, "trend": 30.890333, "fair_value": 31.184455, "relative_strength": -18.902036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.601727, "energy": 21.740534, "activity_lines": [ 28.779333, 28.417455, 28.865524, 29.818925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.39, "volume": 741751, "typical_volume": 797270.95, "trend": 30.850333, "fair_value": 31.116442, "relative_strength": -16.820459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.847701, "energy": 18.52289, "activity_lines": [ 29.372667, 28.801455, 28.917905, 29.786645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.27, "volume": 612377, "typical_volume": 808533.5, "trend": 30.803, "fair_value": 31.042596, "relative_strength": -18.219744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.212184, "energy": 15.621428, "activity_lines": [ 29.79, 29.131091, 28.975667, 29.749204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.01, "volume": 1089316, "typical_volume": 828295.0, "trend": 30.724667, "fair_value": 30.959455, "relative_strength": -15.001722, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.98348, "energy": 20.352816, "activity_lines": [ 29.970667, 29.372182, 29.025333, 29.698043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.84, "volume": 667893, "typical_volume": 832615.45, "trend": 30.551667, "fair_value": 30.86984, "relative_strength": -19.344136, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.360169, "energy": 18.692272, "activity_lines": [ 29.354, 29.192909, 28.885714, 29.511935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.21, "volume": 846870, "typical_volume": 833712.25, "trend": 30.359667, "fair_value": 30.772724, "relative_strength": -21.006199, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.992065, "energy": 29.208076, "activity_lines": [ 28.558, 28.884727, 28.710286, 29.296344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.0, "volume": 1351836, "typical_volume": 879015.95, "trend": 30.156, "fair_value": 30.69375, "relative_strength": -24.850647, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.238475, "energy": 54.432576, "activity_lines": [ 27.843333, 28.543455, 28.536286, 29.079591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }