{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1fb1c03e-183a-4397-99c4-d9a7e64d4b86",
    "symbol": "CYD",
    "name": "China Yuchai International Limited",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 54.019,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 7.22,
    "architecture_energy": 5.195,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.352,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.683,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 63.72,
        "rotation_up": 28.1,
        "upward_expansion": 37.24,
        "deceleration": 69.72,
        "rotation_down": 35.01,
        "downward_expansion": 16.24
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        46.23616,
        45.889474,
        47.084513,
        46.569622
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 47.32,
    "trend_reference": 46.307989,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.021854,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 21.816917,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.168959,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 0.647988,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.0536,
    "excess_performance": -0.179225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021854,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078644,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.168959,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.325395,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00648,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.171107,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.0536,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.924709,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 488119,
      "relative_activity": 0.603858,
      "balance": 0.924709,
      "dry_up": 0.656315,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.128354,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.565532,
      "from_high_reference": -0.230291,
      "from_low_reference": 0.732064
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 46.307989,
      "fair_value_reference": 21.816917,
      "structural_low": 36.55,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.014894,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.454545,
        "median_excess_return": 0.023588,
        "regime_survival": 0.363636,
        "best_return": 0.756032,
        "worst_return": -0.137313,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.036782,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.068311,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.513327,
        "worst_return": -0.247015,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.006022,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.064544,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.490449,
        "worst_return": -0.317495,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.043405,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.23977,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.48227,
        "worst_return": -0.397188,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.061078,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047181,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.283328,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.166831,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.2335,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.253846,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.820141,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031228,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.225158,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.112187,
        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 813353.8,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "relative_strength": 34.390148,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": 35.718949,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 965327.5,
        "trend": 44.624348,
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        "relative_strength": 3.147089,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.158584,
        "energy": 14.44533,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 42.546817,
        "volume": 1027880,
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        "trend": 44.884242,
        "fair_value": 20.681398,
        "relative_strength": -2.820924,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 10.706778,
        "energy": 20.348434,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 45.292406,
        "volume": 968598,
        "typical_volume": 992595.85,
        "trend": 45.220322,
        "fair_value": 20.908705,
        "relative_strength": 1.391115,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 0.421558,
        "energy": 18.160446,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.870762,
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          46.514286
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 43.9,
        "volume": 558407,
        "typical_volume": 890467.6,
        "trend": 45.474656,
        "fair_value": 21.125615,
        "relative_strength": -0.784847,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -5.920517,
        "energy": 19.963006,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.264117,
          47.061092,
          46.817127,
          46.429104
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 45.07,
        "volume": 556689,
        "typical_volume": 846860.65,
        "trend": 45.779655,
        "fair_value": 21.351614,
        "relative_strength": 1.678273,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -12.70398,
        "energy": 18.371692,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.391325,
          46.286008,
          46.789319,
          46.402997
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 47.16,
        "volume": 518871,
        "typical_volume": 828455.1,
        "trend": 46.117655,
        "fair_value": 21.587201,
        "relative_strength": 4.343766,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -6.747424,
        "energy": 8.640401,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.394109,
          45.980559,
          46.942607,
          46.492052
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 47.32,
        "volume": 488119,
        "typical_volume": 808334.05,
        "trend": 46.307989,
        "fair_value": 21.816917,
        "relative_strength": 0.647988,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 7.220124,
        "energy": 5.194501,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.23616,
          45.889474,
          47.084513,
          46.569622
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}