{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fb9dad8-fdfa-4ade-acab-da8e4df508c2", "symbol": "4419", "name": "King House CO., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.701, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.835, "architecture_energy": 28.877, "architecture_maturity": 54.017, "architecture_confidence": 92.368, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.63, "rotation_up": 16.0, "upward_expansion": 5.15, "deceleration": 43.78, "rotation_down": 51.85, "downward_expansion": 73.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.860001, 46.228183, 46.287381, 46.389678 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 46.5, "trend_reference": 46.49, "distance_from_trend": 0.000215, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.095513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.099061, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.015284, "excess_performance": -0.426088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000215, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008168, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031145, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028243, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290991, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048314, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015284, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.42886, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31000, "relative_activity": 0.299546, "balance": 0.42886, "dry_up": 0.173031, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049297, "annualized_volatility": 0.36471, "from_high_reference": -0.154545, "from_low_reference": 0.142506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.49, "fair_value_reference": 45.095513, "structural_low": 43.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.016376, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.052061, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.607317, "worst_return": -0.121739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00934, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.092545, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.219512, "worst_return": -0.154128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051984, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.032214, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.195122, "worst_return": -0.101563, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.146341, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.136525, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.251376, "worst_return": -0.066184, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056569, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029703, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082031, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018614, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02449, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077088, "active": false 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14.778132, "energy": 14.342073, "activity_lines": [ 47.083334, 46.862727, 46.687857, 46.671398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.150002, "volume": 10108, "typical_volume": 111272.85, "trend": 46.793333, "fair_value": 44.854808, "relative_strength": -30.691548, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.312439, "energy": 20.22756, "activity_lines": [ 46.373335, 46.60091, 46.542857, 46.559247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.200001, "volume": 13480, "typical_volume": 108014.75, "trend": 46.653333, "fair_value": 44.927885, "relative_strength": -28.783188, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.158158, "energy": 30.032994, "activity_lines": [ 45.750001, 46.369092, 46.402381, 46.456452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.650002, "volume": 17040, "typical_volume": 107215.65, "trend": 46.531667, "fair_value": 45.005769, "relative_strength": -28.879444, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.52051, "energy": 34.352607, "activity_lines": [ 45.616668, 46.217274, 46.304048, 46.391721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 46.5, "volume": 31000, "typical_volume": 103490.05, "trend": 46.49, "fair_value": 45.095513, "relative_strength": -29.099061, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.835451, "energy": 28.877352, "activity_lines": [ 45.860001, 46.228183, 46.287381, 46.389678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }