{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fbb1dba-44e3-4ee5-8f50-6c5e4f12030b", "symbol": "FTS100", "name": "Amundi FTSE 100 Swap UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.901, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.962, "architecture_energy": 87.129, "architecture_maturity": 37.139, "architecture_confidence": 69.845, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.25, "rotation_up": 83.29, "upward_expansion": 98.35, "deceleration": 39.29, "rotation_down": 9.63, "downward_expansion": 20.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.074667, 22.788364, 22.393357, 22.157957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 23.280001, "trend_reference": 21.874833, "distance_from_trend": 0.064237, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.897592, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300734, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.063843, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.087342, "excess_performance": -0.083549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064237, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04023, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300734, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053933, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040638, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005875, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087342, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.713822, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40183, "relative_activity": 0.381994, "balance": 14.713822, "dry_up": 1.508659, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019561, "annualized_volatility": 0.137418, "from_high_reference": -0.008518, "from_low_reference": 0.352906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.874833, "fair_value_reference": 17.897592, "structural_low": 20.190001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.009587, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -6.6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.076181, "worst_return": -0.091958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.039546, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.011307, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.074097, "worst_return": -0.064681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.082391, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.007626, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.114531, "worst_return": -0.029462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-5.623578, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.460132, "energy": 69.91722, "activity_lines": [ 22.373, 22.164545, 21.943476, 21.800559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.719999, "volume": 32186, "typical_volume": 87812.1, "trend": 21.615833, "fair_value": 17.73181, "relative_strength": -3.221943, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.217611, "energy": 77.284081, "activity_lines": [ 22.527666, 22.298727, 22.031595, 21.87715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.965, "volume": 555116, "typical_volume": 110853.1, "trend": 21.705333, "fair_value": 17.78447, "relative_strength": -1.985819, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.820875, "energy": 82.393291, "activity_lines": [ 22.721333, 22.455182, 22.141381, 21.964193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.225, "volume": 7315, "typical_volume": 108290.5, "trend": 21.796333, "fair_value": 17.840977, "relative_strength": -1.513577, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.80838, "energy": 84.221736, "activity_lines": [ 22.922333, 22.627363, 22.269071, 22.062236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.280001, "volume": 40183, "typical_volume": 105192.75, "trend": 21.874833, "fair_value": 17.897592, "relative_strength": -4.063843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.961707, "energy": 87.129374, "activity_lines": [ 23.074667, 22.788364, 22.393357, 22.157957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }