{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fc34889-8648-4b41-9a12-814d529a4541", "symbol": "BSLI4", "name": "BRB - Banco de Bras\u00edlia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.822, "architecture_energy": 60.781, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.183, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.31, "rotation_up": 27.34, "upward_expansion": 10.51, "deceleration": 59.17, "rotation_down": 57.89, "downward_expansion": 86.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.0, 3.063636, 3.320381, 3.58557 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.97, "trend_reference": 4.121667, "distance_from_trend": -0.279418, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.335494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.643692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.303402, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.468694, "excess_performance": -0.411646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.279418, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.261967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.643692, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071968, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.543034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023235, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.468694, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.804828, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69100, "relative_activity": 0.638072, "balance": 0.804828, "dry_up": 0.448543, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102305, "annualized_volatility": 0.437749, "from_high_reference": -0.765137, "from_low_reference": 0.027682 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.121667, "fair_value_reference": 8.335494, "structural_low": 2.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.030362, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.023253, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.596517, "worst_return": -0.365722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.139255, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.096347, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.190871, "worst_return": -0.427984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.162065, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.158305, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.509773, "worst_return": -0.550069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.345245, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.40179, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.165252, "worst_return": -0.408566, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-06-10", "end": "2023-01-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.193296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-01-27", "end": "2023-02-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037673, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.132018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.310816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081262, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.303772, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.263581, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.102525, "energy": 85.768116, "activity_lines": [ 3.105333, 3.332, 3.587238, 3.96372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.0, "volume": 65600, "typical_volume": 123475.0, "trend": 4.535, "fair_value": 8.495554, "relative_strength": -57.25088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.139111, "energy": 81.647076, "activity_lines": [ 3.038, 3.243818, 3.50881, 3.855462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.0, "volume": 33400, "typical_volume": 114835.0, "trend": 4.398333, "fair_value": 8.439326, "relative_strength": -56.425674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.263186, "energy": 73.868863, "activity_lines": [ 3.01, 3.171273, 3.438952, 3.75643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.04, "volume": 26200, "typical_volume": 110110.0, "trend": 4.26, "fair_value": 8.38639, "relative_strength": -55.775414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.460811, "energy": 64.337615, "activity_lines": [ 3.014, 3.121091, 3.379571, 3.668796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.97, "volume": 69100, "typical_volume": 108295.0, "trend": 4.121667, "fair_value": 8.335494, "relative_strength": -54.303402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.822434, "energy": 60.780723, "activity_lines": [ 3.0, 3.063636, 3.320381, 3.58557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }