{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fd47f9d-bb9c-4e0b-85a1-fb48181a553e", "symbol": "600135", "name": "Lucky Film Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.293, "architecture_energy": 79.45, "architecture_maturity": 28.182, "architecture_confidence": 94.382, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.66, "rotation_up": 13.34, "upward_expansion": 19.32, "deceleration": 38.09, "rotation_down": 70.3, "downward_expansion": 92.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.063333, 7.418545, 8.465762, 8.964753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.37, "trend_reference": 9.537667, "distance_from_trend": -0.227274, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.361923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001097, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.029333, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.232292, "excess_performance": -0.189088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227274, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020136, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001097, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.622764, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160293, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.419897, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232292, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.130989, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30128916, "relative_activity": 0.354972, "balance": 0.130989, "dry_up": 0.453854, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127544, "annualized_volatility": 0.516226, "from_high_reference": -0.453264, "from_low_reference": 0.196429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.537667, "fair_value_reference": 7.361923, "structural_low": 6.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.019286, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.009502, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.283217, "worst_return": -0.196629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014118, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.550756, "worst_return": -0.196181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009062, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.073362, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.460043, "worst_return": -0.239737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"relative_strength": -19.742628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.468483, "energy": 87.569773, "activity_lines": [ 7.540667, 8.198909, 9.189476, 9.491849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.58, "volume": 46277051, "typical_volume": 102936310.4, "trend": 9.710333, "fair_value": 7.370641, "relative_strength": -23.041398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.635049, "energy": 88.773665, "activity_lines": [ 7.130667, 7.781818, 8.895333, 9.284516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.02, "volume": 34189690, "typical_volume": 91473231.55, "trend": 9.636, "fair_value": 7.366987, "relative_strength": -18.0402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.193781, "energy": 85.173646, "activity_lines": [ 7.012, 7.533091, 8.655286, 9.110946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.37, "volume": 30128916, "typical_volume": 84876994.1, "trend": 9.537667, "fair_value": 7.361923, "relative_strength": -16.029333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.292665, "energy": 79.449649, "activity_lines": [ 7.063333, 7.418545, 8.465762, 8.964753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }