{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fd65fd5-d106-4485-adce-e329c7aae68a", "symbol": "APP", "name": "Applovin Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.951, "architecture_energy": 66.218, "architecture_maturity": 33.787, "architecture_confidence": 69.627, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.19, "rotation_up": 9.1, "upward_expansion": 21.75, "deceleration": 41.14, "rotation_down": 74.56, "downward_expansion": 80.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 389.973333, 430.619818, 460.078524, 458.893226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 346.8, "trend_reference": 460.766, "distance_from_trend": -0.24734, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 289.12375, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.934321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.147325, "excess_performance": -0.334779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.24734, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113376, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199486, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.66197, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.419343, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214019, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.147325, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.64143, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45461122, "relative_activity": 1.763505, "balance": 0.64143, "dry_up": 1.408649, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.221335, "annualized_volatility": 0.722161, "from_high_reference": -0.534877, "from_low_reference": 0.043975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 460.766, "fair_value_reference": 289.12375, "structural_low": 332.1918, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.092918, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.044123, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.271961, "worst_return": -0.201617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.580225, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.496864, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.747868, "worst_return": -0.145154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.940426, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.753711, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 3.855518, "worst_return": -0.252531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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487.133619, 483.080925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 506.98, "volume": 23820927, "typical_volume": 23890666.0, "trend": 498.846667, "fair_value": 279.959583, "relative_strength": -16.45957, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.092752, "energy": 7.156028, "activity_lines": [ 500.704667, 510.045818, 490.687762, 483.253634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 424.54, "volume": 32435551, "typical_volume": 24057605.0, "trend": 488.952333, "fair_value": 282.500865, "relative_strength": -26.938525, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.103358, "energy": 14.343273, "activity_lines": [ 477.044667, 494.523636, 485.97, 478.459656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 391.98, "volume": 28023266, "typical_volume": 23934364.65, "trend": 478.210667, "fair_value": 284.813173, "relative_strength": -31.333163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.834006, "energy": 37.154007, "activity_lines": [ 447.346667, 473.881636, 478.2, 472.203376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 395.9, "volume": 39333454, "typical_volume": 24574539.0, "trend": 470.796667, "fair_value": 287.149968, "relative_strength": -30.847521, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.087248, "energy": 44.75251, "activity_lines": [ 424.137333, 455.934545, 471.327905, 466.893011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 346.8, "volume": 45461122, "typical_volume": 25778841.15, "trend": 460.766, "fair_value": 289.12375, "relative_strength": -41.934321, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.950834, "energy": 66.218386, "activity_lines": [ 389.973333, 430.619818, 460.078524, 458.893226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }