{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fd7379c-7c3b-4c85-b6b6-e3b0cdc0d389", "symbol": "SJNK", "name": "State Street SPDR Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Corporate Scored UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.66, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.967, "architecture_energy": 46.667, "architecture_maturity": 2.597, "architecture_confidence": 83.035, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.74, "rotation_up": 14.13, "upward_expansion": 21.46, "deceleration": 54.81, "rotation_down": 74.28, "downward_expansion": 53.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.491317, 34.742443, 34.845803, 34.78417 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 34.43, "trend_reference": 34.688797, "distance_from_trend": -0.007461, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.389876, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031151, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.563342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006431, "excess_performance": -0.164461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007461, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005726, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031151, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020081, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006431, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.786051, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27030, "relative_activity": 2.667482, "balance": 1.786051, "dry_up": 1.197036, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010603, "annualized_volatility": 0.069747, "from_high_reference": -0.041881, "from_low_reference": 0.023586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.688797, "fair_value_reference": 33.389876, "structural_low": 33.895, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028531, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.011108, "worst_return": -0.017553, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001249, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.09296, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015029, "worst_return": -0.009176, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017607, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.082604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057018, "worst_return": -0.001937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"up", "direction": 18.877292, "energy": 18.724792, "activity_lines": [ 34.896333, 35.073542, 34.948259, 34.828852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.629181, "volume": 3403, "typical_volume": 9358.25, "trend": 34.699046, "fair_value": 33.322303, "relative_strength": -11.70292, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.788705, "energy": 27.49098, "activity_lines": [ 34.735462, 34.986321, 34.928305, 34.825452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.329777, "volume": 7845, "typical_volume": 9488.05, "trend": 34.70061, "fair_value": 33.356276, "relative_strength": -12.667543, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.830219, "energy": 37.730907, "activity_lines": [ 34.544512, 34.848859, 34.881126, 34.801629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.43, "volume": 27030, "typical_volume": 10133.15, "trend": 34.688797, "fair_value": 33.389876, "relative_strength": -14.563342, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.967441, "energy": 46.667462, "activity_lines": [ 34.491317, 34.742443, 34.845803, 34.78417 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }