{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fdf6b4a-38b5-4c1c-98bf-8e52f505b3a1", "symbol": "URAN", "name": "THEMES URANIUM & NUCLEAR ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.839, "architecture_energy": 52.047, "architecture_maturity": 25.774, "architecture_confidence": 93.197, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.12, "rotation_up": 20.09, "upward_expansion": 8.0, "deceleration": 47.97, "rotation_down": 61.52, "downward_expansion": 83.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.46076, 37.926767, 39.94055, 41.395771 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.91, "trend_reference": 43.493977, "distance_from_trend": -0.105393, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.477257, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03823, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.074192, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.164125, "excess_performance": -0.289749, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105393, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03823, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17242, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519885, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19183, "relative_activity": 0.441098, "balance": 0.519885, "dry_up": 0.964238, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075205, "annualized_volatility": 0.328568, "from_high_reference": -0.29447, "from_low_reference": 0.110159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.493977, "fair_value_reference": 37.477257, "structural_low": 35.445, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.134169, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.129549, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.134169, "worst_return": -0.134169, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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39.27702, 40.613255, 42.461472, 43.587182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 38.62, "volume": 122488, "typical_volume": 47232.25, "trend": 44.41574, "fair_value": 37.493724, "relative_strength": -19.903037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.277479, "energy": 64.271764, "activity_lines": [ 38.95814, 40.009424, 41.973071, 43.205235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.99, "volume": 110318, "typical_volume": 49286.2, "trend": 44.202073, "fair_value": 37.477895, "relative_strength": -23.871112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.86007, "energy": 78.88159, "activity_lines": [ 37.85326, 39.069125, 41.282098, 42.661639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.083, "volume": 15498, "typical_volume": 46147.8, "trend": 44.027677, "fair_value": 37.473782, "relative_strength": -20.792586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.943704, "energy": 73.156436, "activity_lines": [ 37.349373, 38.509913, 40.759744, 42.202344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.3781, "volume": 22737, "typical_volume": 45329.0, "trend": 43.76231, "fair_value": 37.462486, "relative_strength": -22.891928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.349974, "energy": 70.351689, "activity_lines": [ 36.909453, 37.933755, 40.208814, 41.708823 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.91, "volume": 19183, "typical_volume": 43489.25, "trend": 43.493977, "fair_value": 37.477257, "relative_strength": -20.074192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.839426, "energy": 52.046929, "activity_lines": [ 37.46076, 37.926767, 39.94055, 41.395771 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }