{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fe7320d-897f-49bc-a968-b29f34bd408e", "symbol": "FTK", "name": "flatexDEGIRO SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 65.73, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.958, "architecture_energy": 20.642, "architecture_maturity": 45.833, "architecture_confidence": 68.959, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.63, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 62.52, "deceleration": 86.13, "rotation_down": 30.3, "downward_expansion": 17.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.674666, 36.205454, 35.020101, 34.410582 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 34.200001, "trend_reference": 34.410198, "distance_from_trend": -0.006109, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.748416, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27858, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.584732, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126214, "excess_performance": -0.30046, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006109, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022849, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155847, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005389, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126214, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.050522, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 263, "relative_activity": 0.420531, "balance": 0.050522, "dry_up": 0.396546, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065829, "annualized_volatility": 0.567704, "from_high_reference": -0.196806, "from_low_reference": 0.27994 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.410198, "fair_value_reference": 26.748416, "structural_low": 28.572468, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.000544, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007215, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.000544, "worst_return": 0.000544, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000655, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081461, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": 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64.603377, "activity_lines": [ 37.477334, 35.918873, 34.229262, 34.120569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 784.8, "trend": 34.513531, "fair_value": 26.461025, "relative_strength": -9.146285, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.579552, "energy": 47.074686, "activity_lines": [ 36.898667, 36.088532, 34.427329, 34.172943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.759998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 603.6, "trend": 34.532198, "fair_value": 26.569436, "relative_strength": -6.78971, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.766729, "energy": 45.27925, "activity_lines": [ 36.787999, 36.421066, 34.738539, 34.317876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.299999, "volume": 729, "typical_volume": 612.25, "trend": 34.530864, "fair_value": 26.670796, "relative_strength": -7.919714, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.024672, "energy": 28.777044, "activity_lines": [ 36.566666, 36.551723, 34.985368, 34.431928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.200001, "volume": 263, "typical_volume": 625.4, "trend": 34.410198, "fair_value": 26.748416, "relative_strength": -15.584732, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.958351, "energy": 20.641585, "activity_lines": [ 35.674666, 36.205454, 35.020101, 34.410582 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }