{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1febef2e-01be-4be9-97b9-1377dfa02f8d", "symbol": "CGXF", "name": "CI Gold+ Giants Covered Call ETF Common", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.611, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.024, "architecture_energy": 37.975, "architecture_maturity": 40.821, "architecture_confidence": 78.014, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.17, "rotation_up": 25.87, "upward_expansion": 14.17, "deceleration": 61.41, "rotation_down": 48.25, "downward_expansion": 73.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.794955, 16.7857, 17.493923, 18.268065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.43, "trend_reference": 19.322861, "distance_from_trend": -0.046207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.31478, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.496576, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.62171, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.112488, "excess_performance": -0.232909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.496576, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106217, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145718, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112488, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.274009, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122900, "relative_activity": 0.403057, "balance": 0.274009, "dry_up": 1.046258, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075124, "annualized_volatility": 0.524454, "from_high_reference": -0.251833, "from_low_reference": 0.349425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.322861, "fair_value_reference": 12.31478, "structural_low": 15.182092, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.002305, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003085, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.150224, "worst_return": -0.12422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033656, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.041532, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.287935, "worst_return": -0.028266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.251849, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.204675, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.331281, "worst_return": -0.063066, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 64.518172, "activity_lines": [ 16.266338, 16.73804, 17.718148, 18.558628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.94, "volume": 281900, "typical_volume": 310695.0, "trend": 19.390323, "fair_value": 12.246342, "relative_strength": -20.152896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.410545, "energy": 67.274903, "activity_lines": [ 16.086334, 16.514496, 17.476424, 18.330021 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.43, "volume": 122900, "typical_volume": 304920.0, "trend": 19.322861, "fair_value": 12.31478, "relative_strength": -10.62171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.024446, "energy": 37.975403, "activity_lines": [ 16.794955, 16.7857, 17.493923, 18.268065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }