{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1fef1304-c5fe-43f1-935c-b220f03a14a1", "symbol": "CAI", "name": "CA Immobilien Anlagen AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.523, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.005, "architecture_energy": 13.603, "architecture_maturity": 11.6, "architecture_confidence": 62.412, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.41, "rotation_up": 27.54, "upward_expansion": 21.4, "deceleration": 32.66, "rotation_down": 30.54, "downward_expansion": 55.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.02, 23.856364, 24.097658, 24.195299 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.25, "trend_reference": 24.282964, "distance_from_trend": -0.001358, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.469457, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008969, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.250705, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003512, "excess_performance": -0.170734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001358, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014614, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008969, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030216, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162507, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003512, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.26342, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 201566, "relative_activity": 0.807173, "balance": 1.26342, "dry_up": 0.931554, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044092, "annualized_volatility": 0.247574, "from_high_reference": -0.094303, "from_low_reference": 0.157187 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.282964, "fair_value_reference": 24.469457, "structural_low": 20.955993, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.015286, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.012546, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.108798, "worst_return": -0.038114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.022838, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01709, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.157795, "worst_return": -0.284258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.161563, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.288674, 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283462.3, "trend": 24.068174, "fair_value": 24.475564, "relative_strength": -16.33664, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.657682, "energy": 18.108453, "activity_lines": [ 23.786667, 23.828182, 24.22141, 24.25513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.700001, "volume": 234408, "typical_volume": 279724.95, "trend": 24.123554, "fair_value": 24.477352, "relative_strength": -15.88734, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.187264, "energy": 9.371184, "activity_lines": [ 23.826667, 23.758182, 24.159755, 24.231377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.5, "volume": 284844, "typical_volume": 269464.75, "trend": 24.176779, "fair_value": 24.474423, "relative_strength": -17.305695, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.488278, "energy": 9.771156, "activity_lines": [ 23.756667, 23.672727, 24.087711, 24.191148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.25, "volume": 209687, "typical_volume": 262936.85, "trend": 24.25887, "fair_value": 24.472336, "relative_strength": -14.205349, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.60366, "energy": 15.176808, "activity_lines": [ 23.91, 23.755455, 24.093853, 24.195872 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.25, "volume": 201566, "typical_volume": 249718.4, "trend": 24.282964, "fair_value": 24.469457, "relative_strength": -16.250705, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.005342, "energy": 13.602927, "activity_lines": [ 24.02, 23.856364, 24.097658, 24.195299 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }