{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ff25c82-014e-4f75-88e9-5f37bbf888b1", "symbol": "HLX", "name": "Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.371, "architecture_energy": 26.256, "architecture_maturity": 30.356, "architecture_confidence": 58.468, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.07, "rotation_up": 54.09, "upward_expansion": 64.28, "deceleration": 63.75, "rotation_down": 11.35, "downward_expansion": 9.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.61, 9.385818, 9.444238, 9.415548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.6, "trend_reference": 9.196667, "distance_from_trend": 0.043856, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.980321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069004, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.487804, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.121495, "excess_performance": -0.00413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043856, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105546, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069004, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022616, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064878, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111512, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121495, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.650665, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8432024, "relative_activity": 1.05209, "balance": 1.650665, "dry_up": 0.896741, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078894, "annualized_volatility": 0.356002, "from_high_reference": -0.106977, "from_low_reference": 0.72043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.196667, "fair_value_reference": 8.980321, "structural_low": 8.26, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.01751, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.042967, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.205926, "worst_return": -0.303769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063578, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.111743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015537, "worst_return": -0.100098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074583, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.110106, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.576037, "worst_return": -0.021186, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"typical_volume": 8668435.7, "trend": 8.887, "fair_value": 8.978974, "relative_strength": 12.39277, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.892999, "energy": 13.695729, "activity_lines": [ 9.122, 9.186364, 9.392952, 9.285742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.91, "volume": 5692942, "typical_volume": 8396832.75, "trend": 9.008667, "fair_value": 8.981218, "relative_strength": 16.244715, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.519529, "energy": 20.266144, "activity_lines": [ 9.432, 9.290727, 9.436571, 9.351742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.51, "volume": 8348915, "typical_volume": 8210283.05, "trend": 9.112333, "fair_value": 8.980833, "relative_strength": 9.763476, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.115833, "energy": 23.528228, "activity_lines": [ 9.527333, 9.324909, 9.437762, 9.384086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.6, "volume": 8432024, "typical_volume": 8014548.45, "trend": 9.196667, "fair_value": 8.980321, "relative_strength": 6.487804, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.370896, "energy": 26.256497, "activity_lines": [ 9.61, 9.385818, 9.444238, 9.415548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }