{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ff60772-3a5a-48c2-9bda-c1ecf7adaf1c", "symbol": "MCHX", "name": "Marchex Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.109, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.821, "architecture_energy": 44.469, "architecture_maturity": 13.011, "architecture_confidence": 78.166, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.17, "rotation_up": 60.44, "upward_expansion": 83.77, "deceleration": 46.1, "rotation_down": 14.01, "downward_expansion": 8.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.774, 1.725091, 1.679831, 1.644665 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.8, "trend_reference": 1.61777, "distance_from_trend": 0.112643, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.660166, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084229, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.971605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.090909, "excess_performance": -0.096545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112643, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005899, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084229, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148664, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18562, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090909, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.807579, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133469, "relative_activity": 1.368878, "balance": 1.807579, "dry_up": 1.127586, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141679, "annualized_volatility": 0.403972, "from_high_reference": -0.138756, "from_low_reference": 0.361573 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.61777, "fair_value_reference": 1.660166, "structural_low": 1.34, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.035176, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.030073, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.246835, "worst_return": -0.30303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.075283, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.279762, "worst_return": -0.380184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034877, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075108, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.220779, "worst_return": -0.235099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.536232, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104651, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.215962, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075949, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", 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"volume": 78213, "typical_volume": 87449.9, "trend": 1.606437, "fair_value": 1.663884, "relative_strength": -13.519607, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.218848, "energy": 17.309917, "activity_lines": [ 1.654667, 1.622182, 1.613303, 1.601294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.8, "volume": 173883, "typical_volume": 92926.35, "trend": 1.610437, "fair_value": 1.663051, "relative_strength": -5.42798, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.347274, "energy": 44.377469, "activity_lines": [ 1.717333, 1.656364, 1.634269, 1.613782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.8, "volume": 60862, "typical_volume": 94514.9, "trend": 1.61477, "fair_value": 1.661961, "relative_strength": -3.239723, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.132193, "energy": 50.951351, "activity_lines": [ 1.763333, 1.686545, 1.653662, 1.626011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.72, "volume": 71556, "typical_volume": 95573.7, "trend": 1.616103, "fair_value": 1.660807, "relative_strength": -7.398181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.050822, "energy": 48.858572, "activity_lines": [ 1.76, 1.698909, 1.663628, 1.6328 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.8, "volume": 133469, "typical_volume": 97502.5, "trend": 1.61777, "fair_value": 1.660166, "relative_strength": -6.971605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.82063, "energy": 44.468847, "activity_lines": [ 1.774, 1.725091, 1.679831, 1.644665 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }