{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ff77a04-71e0-430a-a679-d5585a1826d3", "symbol": "APL", "name": "Asset Plus Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.129, "architecture_energy": 77.502, "architecture_maturity": 62.627, "architecture_confidence": 78.964, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.34, "rotation_up": 10.99, "upward_expansion": 17.33, "deceleration": 38.37, "rotation_down": 78.97, "downward_expansion": 95.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.165667, 0.168636, 0.171408, 0.17462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.165, "trend_reference": 0.179904, "distance_from_trend": -0.082843, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.186975, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.117531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.749128, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.157987, "excess_performance": -0.186261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082843, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067225, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.117531, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035175, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052035, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157987, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.716872, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 702681, "relative_activity": 2.30716, "balance": 1.716872, "dry_up": 1.200105, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031619, "annualized_volatility": 0.113703, "from_high_reference": -0.312972, "from_low_reference": 0.018519 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.179904, "fair_value_reference": 0.186975, "structural_low": 0.162, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": -0.011606, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.094338, "worst_return": -0.099999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018869, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.076285, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.127459, "worst_return": -0.1401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.044446, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.126319, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.130434, "worst_return": -0.16397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010691, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045001, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037833, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005319, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010368, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 281135.65, "trend": 0.181332, "fair_value": 0.187261, "relative_strength": -18.431313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.732988, "energy": 79.664791, "activity_lines": [ 0.166867, 0.169927, 0.172324, 0.175673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.165, "volume": 702681, "typical_volume": 304565.35, "trend": 0.179904, "fair_value": 0.186975, "relative_strength": -17.749128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.128904, "energy": 77.502055, "activity_lines": [ 0.165667, 0.168636, 0.171408, 0.17462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }