{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ffb386e-f588-4e1e-a627-a773ea5f9920", "symbol": "DBA", "name": "DBA Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.646, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.896, "architecture_energy": 26.655, "architecture_maturity": 32.141, "architecture_confidence": 49.885, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.8, "rotation_up": 37.91, "upward_expansion": 66.76, "deceleration": 70.64, "rotation_down": 23.26, "downward_expansion": 7.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.123978, 4.10059, 4.06958, 3.96811 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.19, "trend_reference": 3.888931, "distance_from_trend": 0.077417, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.08871, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.356553, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.17236, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074359, "excess_performance": -0.096533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077417, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002838, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.356553, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087348, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098516, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074359, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.839869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41100, "relative_activity": 1.13083, "balance": 4.839869, "dry_up": 0.988444, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078311, "annualized_volatility": 0.371894, "from_high_reference": -0.114165, "from_low_reference": 0.347267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.888931, "fair_value_reference": 3.08871, "structural_low": 3.11, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.060526, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.044128, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.450413, "worst_return": -0.013857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.149827, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.122711, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.711127, "worst_return": -0.015291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.330579, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.283187, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.762805, "worst_return": 0.026316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00339, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013605, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084249, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.27926, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134211, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014052, "active": 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39855.0, "trend": 3.887931, "fair_value": 3.025223, "relative_strength": -12.255836, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.572526, "energy": 22.862459, "activity_lines": [ 4.055633, 4.133168, 3.972017, 3.90934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.09, "volume": 22800, "typical_volume": 39120.0, "trend": 3.885265, "fair_value": 3.040965, "relative_strength": -10.703849, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.500877, "energy": 20.336747, "activity_lines": [ 4.05777, 4.125205, 3.996218, 3.922377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.05, "volume": 31800, "typical_volume": 36375.0, "trend": 3.882265, "fair_value": 3.056332, "relative_strength": -10.923208, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.421859, "energy": 17.362067, "activity_lines": [ 4.059907, 4.10197, 4.01618, 3.933005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.12, "volume": 48000, "typical_volume": 37620.0, "trend": 3.883598, "fair_value": 3.072417, "relative_strength": -9.498884, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.26276, "energy": 20.501582, "activity_lines": [ 4.085466, 4.094189, 4.040713, 3.948342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.19, "volume": 41100, "typical_volume": 36345.0, "trend": 3.888931, "fair_value": 3.08871, "relative_strength": -10.17236, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.895787, "energy": 26.655497, "activity_lines": [ 4.123978, 4.10059, 4.06958, 3.96811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }