{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2003d808-92ae-4f0b-a6e9-1573490b1fa2", "symbol": "688286", "name": "MEMSensing Microsystems (Suzhou, China) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.907, "architecture_energy": 41.178, "architecture_maturity": 43.65, "architecture_confidence": 59.028, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.22, "rotation_up": 8.81, "upward_expansion": 11.9, "deceleration": 63.91, "rotation_down": 68.24, "downward_expansion": 68.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.056666, 51.986117, 52.269943, 52.192879 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.259998, "trend_reference": 53.177054, "distance_from_trend": -0.148881, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.534262, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016296, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.664039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251717, "excess_performance": -0.208514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148881, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008602, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15716, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033512, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251717, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.944503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19977971, "relative_activity": 1.028392, "balance": 0.944503, "dry_up": 1.272189, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.277321, "annualized_volatility": 0.941496, "from_high_reference": -0.539769, "from_low_reference": 0.24 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.177054, "fair_value_reference": 44.534262, "structural_low": 36.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.001455, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021823, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.344229, "worst_return": -0.272389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.105854, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.054093, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.330377, "worst_return": -0.362966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.066403, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.111891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.334353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137092, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141317, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059796, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069023, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175702, 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37.168775, "energy": 51.930771, "activity_lines": [ 63.136184, 59.522447, 55.301778, 54.608638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.889999, "volume": 31444885, "typical_volume": 18319275.15, "trend": 54.10495, "fair_value": 44.522813, "relative_strength": -25.724548, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.46524, "energy": 10.385988, "activity_lines": [ 55.088771, 56.685806, 54.172116, 53.7308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.549999, "volume": 21778046, "typical_volume": 18879881.65, "trend": 53.54282, "fair_value": 44.497808, "relative_strength": -29.930526, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.546439, "energy": 30.644787, "activity_lines": [ 47.329333, 53.604899, 52.873394, 52.727255 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.259998, "volume": 19977971, "typical_volume": 19426412.8, "trend": 53.177054, "fair_value": 44.534262, "relative_strength": -19.664039, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.906857, "energy": 41.177794, "activity_lines": [ 44.056666, 51.986117, 52.269943, 52.192879 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }