{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20068462-0689-4d5f-a6d8-45089081d2ba", "symbol": "S29", "name": "Stamford Tyres Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.029, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.3, "architecture_energy": 21.39, "architecture_maturity": 3.743, "architecture_confidence": 37.291, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.29, "rotation_up": 48.22, "upward_expansion": 33.8, "deceleration": 32.73, "rotation_down": 28.67, "downward_expansion": 29.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.193267, 0.1924, 0.191767, 0.192034 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.197, "trend_reference": 0.1928, "distance_from_trend": 0.021784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.187944, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048183, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.12452, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010256, "excess_performance": -0.144579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013474, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048183, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006453, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036446, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010256, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708798, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 265200, "relative_activity": 2.666399, "balance": 0.708798, "dry_up": 1.235924, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021476, "annualized_volatility": 0.096838, "from_high_reference": -0.083721, "from_low_reference": 0.064865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1928, "fair_value_reference": 0.187944, "structural_low": 0.188, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032116, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.05197, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.111109, "worst_return": -0.058511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020304, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.015163, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.22391, "worst_return": -0.068293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.07895, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.078554, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24098, "worst_return": -0.082927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.094195, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.020903, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.252369, "worst_return": -0.029037, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058201, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005051, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.065542, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047617, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066666, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053659, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.005155, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.162195, "volume": 629700, "typical_volume": 278350.0, "trend": 0.15641, "fair_value": 0.145898, "relative_strength": 5.743699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.273055, 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-32.144978, "energy": 13.361088, "activity_lines": [ 0.191133, 0.191018, 0.191238, 0.191951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.19, "volume": 95000, "typical_volume": 88650.0, "trend": 0.1929, "fair_value": 0.187576, "relative_strength": -18.482135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.158835, "energy": 27.098082, "activity_lines": [ 0.1906, 0.190891, 0.19109, 0.191755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.193, "volume": 46000, "typical_volume": 86235.0, "trend": 0.192767, "fair_value": 0.187773, "relative_strength": -17.297009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.47963, "energy": 12.462383, "activity_lines": [ 0.1912, 0.191309, 0.191233, 0.191761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.197, "volume": 265200, "typical_volume": 99460.0, "trend": 0.1928, "fair_value": 0.187944, "relative_strength": -16.12452, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.299821, "energy": 21.390356, "activity_lines": [ 0.193267, 0.1924, 0.191767, 0.192034 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }