{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2007c2ce-167e-4533-b0cd-660d002fd269", "symbol": "CELL", "name": "Cellularline S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.447, "architecture_energy": 64.97, "architecture_maturity": 11.948, "architecture_confidence": 69.339, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.26, "rotation_up": 70.5, "upward_expansion": 52.52, "deceleration": 20.9, "rotation_down": 14.36, "downward_expansion": 27.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.280667, 2.231273, 2.194546, 2.194837 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.39, "trend_reference": 2.224603, "distance_from_trend": 0.074349, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.315335, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032248, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.693917, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014433, "excess_performance": -0.185325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028208, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032248, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13151, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12184, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014433, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 20.590202, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 268111, "relative_activity": 1.49541, "balance": 20.590202, "dry_up": 0.735342, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031081, "annualized_volatility": 0.160012, "from_high_reference": -0.209716, "from_low_reference": 0.187264 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.224603, "fair_value_reference": 2.315335, "structural_low": 2.013031, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0039, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01068, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.141732, "worst_return": -0.073334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.027273, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.06759, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189822, "worst_return": -0.141791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022388, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.097977, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236565, "worst_return": -0.255738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117648, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164326, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044369, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010453, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.164542, "energy": 21.663781, "activity_lines": [ 2.161333, 2.16651, 2.154269, 2.18821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.18, "volume": 54028, "typical_volume": 163836.0, "trend": 2.240912, "fair_value": 2.314675, "relative_strength": -21.531645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.417096, "energy": 17.535563, "activity_lines": [ 2.167333, 2.169916, 2.155845, 2.183934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.19, "volume": 47870, "typical_volume": 163457.65, "trend": 2.232766, "fair_value": 2.314143, "relative_strength": -20.332265, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.008231, "energy": 8.655038, "activity_lines": [ 2.176667, 2.173636, 2.159138, 2.180649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.29, "volume": 157347, "typical_volume": 169440.9, "trend": 2.22733, "fair_value": 2.314143, "relative_strength": -16.55853, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.253389, "energy": 26.338829, "activity_lines": [ 2.216667, 2.194364, 2.172227, 2.184342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.39, "volume": 268111, "typical_volume": 179289.25, "trend": 2.224603, "fair_value": 2.315335, "relative_strength": -14.693917, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.447247, "energy": 64.970161, "activity_lines": [ 2.280667, 2.231273, 2.194546, 2.194837 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }