{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2012f917-995d-4564-8398-c08943a4d38a", "symbol": "AHLUCONT", "name": "Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.279, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.998, "architecture_energy": 16.567, "architecture_maturity": 30.119, "architecture_confidence": 70.91, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.47, "rotation_up": 34.32, "upward_expansion": 59.96, "deceleration": 79.68, "rotation_down": 20.52, "downward_expansion": 12.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 828.283329, 830.917271, 825.828806, 816.946772 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 822.299988, "trend_reference": 816.093333, "distance_from_trend": 0.007605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 938.986576, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.124269, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.124724, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042278, "excess_performance": 0.001431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007605, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050303, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.124269, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042278, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.917362, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89720, "relative_activity": 0.446861, "balance": 0.917362, "dry_up": 0.829179, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051806, "annualized_volatility": 0.337278, "from_high_reference": -0.237163, "from_low_reference": 0.274587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 816.093333, "fair_value_reference": 938.986576, "structural_low": 645.150024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.017648, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.005655, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.257398, "worst_return": -0.100474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.139781, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.131811, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.177238, "worst_return": -0.034793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.104896, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.029254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.408291, 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"Established", "return": 0.209147, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138827, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.121557, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090861, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014132, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"relative_strength": -2.000725, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.485269, "energy": 27.788166, "activity_lines": [ 839.150008, 831.815456, 823.299761, 817.01172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 820.049988, "volume": 105954, "typical_volume": 228828.05, "trend": 819.338334, "fair_value": 938.466712, "relative_strength": -4.96253, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.705781, "energy": 14.947887, "activity_lines": [ 832.406669, 831.286364, 824.586426, 816.755698 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 822.299988, "volume": 89720, "typical_volume": 200778.4, "trend": 816.093333, "fair_value": 938.986576, "relative_strength": -5.124724, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.997662, "energy": 16.567202, "activity_lines": [ 828.283329, 830.917271, 825.828806, 816.946772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }