{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20197574-20ae-493b-a21c-9dbd57179842", "symbol": "IDAI", "name": "Trust Stamp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.578, "architecture_energy": 33.007, "architecture_maturity": 90.414, "architecture_confidence": 66.455, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.74, "rotation_up": 60.53, "upward_expansion": 34.08, "deceleration": 38.59, "rotation_down": 17.14, "downward_expansion": 22.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.604, 2.328909, 2.244716, 2.312332 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.23, "trend_reference": 2.520913, "distance_from_trend": 0.281282, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.996158, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.596056, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.645429, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.076667, "excess_performance": -0.110787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.281282, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198925, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.596056, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157902, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066454, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.283999, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618404, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 246288, "relative_activity": 0.838915, "balance": 0.618404, "dry_up": 0.593795, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15488, "annualized_volatility": 1.043223, "from_high_reference": -0.388258, "from_low_reference": 1.760684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.520913, "fair_value_reference": 7.996158, "structural_low": 1.17, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.100561, "positive_rate": 0.342857, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": -0.124982, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.956695, "worst_return": -0.610667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.300469, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.411481, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 2.172475, "worst_return": -0.518606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.502338, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.585646, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.52721, "worst_return": -0.660657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.481752, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.765347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176991, "worst_return": -0.784058, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-09-02", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.594203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.417969, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.349282, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036496, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.20979, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.835981, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.502415, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.465939, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.420354, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009663, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.446036, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113372, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039683, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.196296, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 42.0, "volume": 14554324, "typical_volume": 14188717.55, "trend": 33.10025, "fair_value": 340.360789, "relative_strength": -25.630751, "stage": 1, "regime": 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2.020909, 2.138727, 2.311735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.9, "volume": 82787, "typical_volume": 300709.1, "trend": 2.595913, "fair_value": 8.41212, "relative_strength": -42.299621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.07902, "energy": 22.843684, "activity_lines": [ 2.05, 1.996909, 2.105072, 2.263074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.68, "volume": 188569, "typical_volume": 300239.45, "trend": 2.55058, "fair_value": 8.237953, "relative_strength": -18.792085, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.637303, "energy": 12.672817, "activity_lines": [ 2.275333, 2.119091, 2.149323, 2.268498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.23, "volume": 246288, "typical_volume": 293579.3, "trend": 2.520913, "fair_value": 7.996158, "relative_strength": -6.645429, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.578393, "energy": 33.006608, "activity_lines": [ 2.604, 2.328909, 2.244716, 2.312332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }