{ "ticker": { "uuid": "202097aa-362f-4362-8260-addf6461e9a4", "symbol": "00712", "name": "Fuh Hwa FTSE Mortgage REITs ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.47, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.53, "architecture_energy": 20.508, "architecture_maturity": 43.983, "architecture_confidence": 52.953, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.72, "rotation_up": 46.95, "upward_expansion": 42.94, "deceleration": 31.7, "rotation_down": 15.25, "downward_expansion": 37.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.843333, 8.800556, 8.734167, 8.761683 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.76, "trend_reference": 8.864414, "distance_from_trend": -0.011779, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.380778, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.189089, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076456, "excess_performance": -0.455768, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000748, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045249, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016463, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04704, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076456, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.793578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87775752, "relative_activity": 0.711472, "balance": 0.793578, "dry_up": 1.145203, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018855, "annualized_volatility": 0.121016, "from_high_reference": -0.090535, "from_low_reference": 0.097637 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.864414, "fair_value_reference": 8.380778, "structural_low": 8.39, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.017868, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.013196, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.115168, "worst_return": -0.156457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.045811, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.009105, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.200996, "worst_return": -0.143871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045906, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.075587, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.198931, "worst_return": -0.166173, "sufficient": true }, { 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8.848, 8.73024, 8.704959, 8.773314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.78, "volume": 101395080, "typical_volume": 138925103.8, "trend": 8.872529, "fair_value": 8.3735, "relative_strength": -27.511599, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.883478, "energy": 25.502007, "activity_lines": [ 8.849333, 8.752176, 8.710544, 8.766986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.9, "volume": 146616647, "typical_volume": 137005892.25, "trend": 8.869663, "fair_value": 8.37769, "relative_strength": -24.890674, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.19139, "energy": 35.254444, "activity_lines": [ 8.878667, 8.792394, 8.729004, 8.768758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.76, "volume": 87775752, "typical_volume": 123372033.65, "trend": 8.864414, "fair_value": 8.380778, "relative_strength": -27.189089, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.530258, "energy": 20.508497, "activity_lines": [ 8.843333, 8.800556, 8.734167, 8.761683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }