{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20247faf-0767-4b66-a737-6e26aee5fec5", "symbol": "ABG", "name": "Abacus Group", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.539, "architecture_energy": 44.862, "architecture_maturity": 61.967, "architecture_confidence": 91.943, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.35, "rotation_up": 21.17, "upward_expansion": 5.87, "deceleration": 51.27, "rotation_down": 57.81, "downward_expansion": 81.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.930667, 0.938102, 0.959844, 0.98032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.93, "trend_reference": 1.018139, "distance_from_trend": -0.086569, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.044301, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.109453, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.399458, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.162162, "excess_performance": -0.225868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066818, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.109453, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073823, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183995, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081288, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.162162, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.066296, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3003642, "relative_activity": 0.681643, "balance": 1.066296, "dry_up": 0.972081, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049628, "annualized_volatility": 0.217419, "from_high_reference": -0.256151, "from_low_reference": 0.039106 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.018139, "fair_value_reference": 1.044301, "structural_low": 0.895, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.016201, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.152264, "worst_return": -0.113433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.086642, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.017568, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.143776, "worst_return": -0.108628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054917, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.015672, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.144059, "worst_return": -0.185859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.438811, "energy": 49.241659, "activity_lines": [ 0.949222, 0.961678, 0.982019, 1.008566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.92, "volume": 4929242, "typical_volume": 4489601.85, "trend": 1.044044, "fair_value": 1.046249, "relative_strength": -16.071544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.814093, "energy": 61.26414, "activity_lines": [ 0.936722, 0.95142, 0.974618, 1.000029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.925, "volume": 4108157, "typical_volume": 4480129.1, "trend": 1.034972, "fair_value": 1.045493, "relative_strength": -15.076436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.681766, "energy": 70.863737, "activity_lines": [ 0.928125, 0.943708, 0.968455, 0.992349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.945, "volume": 5092752, "typical_volume": 4501718.35, "trend": 1.026472, "fair_value": 1.044865, "relative_strength": -14.870632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.927902, "energy": 57.890906, "activity_lines": [ 0.930333, 0.941633, 0.96465, 0.986544 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.93, "volume": 3003642, "typical_volume": 4406474.3, "trend": 1.018139, "fair_value": 1.044301, "relative_strength": -18.399458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.538522, "energy": 44.862325, "activity_lines": [ 0.930667, 0.938102, 0.959844, 0.98032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }