{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2026372c-cb58-4ebf-a7dd-b0628f2f894a", "symbol": "XDWI", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Industrials UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.706, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.038, "architecture_energy": 50.172, "architecture_maturity": 66.933, "architecture_confidence": 55.576, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.4, "rotation_up": 50.31, "upward_expansion": 77.83, "deceleration": 70.86, "rotation_down": 25.72, "downward_expansion": 6.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.544667, 76.332001, 75.226096, 74.250388 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 77.980003, "trend_reference": 73.103667, "distance_from_trend": 0.066704, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.788975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304254, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.619496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.089715, "excess_performance": -0.081177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066704, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304254, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025049, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01087, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089715, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.213848, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16475, "relative_activity": 0.77352, "balance": 1.213848, "dry_up": 0.798932, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023507, "annualized_volatility": 0.140834, "from_high_reference": -0.00814, "from_low_reference": 0.253496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.103667, "fair_value_reference": 59.788975, "structural_low": 67.050003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.009753, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00134, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.075128, "worst_return": -0.077433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.02932, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.010246, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.124616, "worst_return": -0.070636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.067553, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.03844, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.131359, "worst_return": -0.114552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.354334, "energy": 81.82918, "activity_lines": [ 76.413335, 75.433456, 74.054954, 73.219657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.059998, "volume": 16717, "typical_volume": 23859.9, "trend": 72.130667, "fair_value": 59.206379, "relative_strength": -4.274692, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.21217, "energy": 68.387421, "activity_lines": [ 76.109333, 75.501637, 74.249049, 73.429485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.75, "volume": 18708, "typical_volume": 22914.9, "trend": 72.498, "fair_value": 59.397052, "relative_strength": -1.870433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.48772, "energy": 55.793727, "activity_lines": [ 76.265333, 75.845092, 74.599334, 73.727506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.43, "volume": 16165, "typical_volume": 22061.8, "trend": 72.807334, "fair_value": 59.584423, "relative_strength": -4.097084, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.500444, "energy": 40.577321, "activity_lines": [ 75.958666, 75.876728, 74.803144, 73.916667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.980003, "volume": 16475, "typical_volume": 21298.75, "trend": 73.103667, "fair_value": 59.788975, "relative_strength": -3.619496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.038351, "energy": 50.172283, "activity_lines": [ 76.544667, 76.332001, 75.226096, 74.250388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }