{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20295ae0-5627-40e9-8a74-2148346458c5", "symbol": "CGSM", "name": "CAPITAL GROUP FIXED INCOME ETF SHORT DURATION MUNICIPAL INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.112, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.564, "architecture_energy": 17.104, "architecture_maturity": 20.915, "architecture_confidence": 54.702, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.27, "rotation_up": 23.0, "upward_expansion": 24.02, "deceleration": 71.35, "rotation_down": 48.93, "downward_expansion": 30.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.244367, 26.2657, 26.260747, 26.258967 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.31, "trend_reference": 26.258308, "distance_from_trend": 0.001969, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.072047, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049376, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.265028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001038, "excess_performance": -0.124586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001969, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049376, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001658, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10265, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002764, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001038, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.559118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1317224, "relative_activity": 0.716545, "balance": 0.559118, "dry_up": 0.705178, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003275, "annualized_volatility": 0.018113, "from_high_reference": -0.005101, "from_low_reference": 0.028793 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.258308, "fair_value_reference": 25.072047, "structural_low": 26.07761, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.00674, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.060005, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.008139, "worst_return": 0.005341, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.019667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.176055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019667, "worst_return": 0.019667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.038384, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.230964, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038384, "worst_return": 0.038384, "sufficient": false }, 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-7.271214, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.621528, "energy": 9.635603, "activity_lines": [ 26.248972, 26.273341, 26.258451, 26.258364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.2, "volume": 1727162, "typical_volume": 1838295.55, "trend": 26.252751, "fair_value": 25.063739, "relative_strength": -7.808681, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.474205, "energy": 20.30196, "activity_lines": [ 26.22447, 26.259855, 26.254156, 26.255274 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.31, "volume": 1317224, "typical_volume": 1838299.15, "trend": 26.258308, "fair_value": 25.072047, "relative_strength": -10.265028, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.563609, "energy": 17.10365, "activity_lines": [ 26.244367, 26.2657, 26.260747, 26.258967 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }