{ "ticker": { "uuid": "202cda75-1879-4057-8467-be81698c7527", "symbol": "B28A", "name": "iShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term \u20ac Corp UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.122, "architecture_energy": 22.87, "architecture_maturity": 29.148, "architecture_confidence": 77.299, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.64, "rotation_up": 33.91, "upward_expansion": 59.59, "deceleration": 82.55, "rotation_down": 25.8, "downward_expansion": 18.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.675, 5.676382, 5.670519, 5.664071 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.681, "trend_reference": 5.6602, "distance_from_trend": 0.003675, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.448882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042599, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.102298, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001057, "excess_performance": -0.052254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003675, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00187, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000431, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061023, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001057, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.430553, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104491, "relative_activity": 1.094983, "balance": 1.430553, "dry_up": 1.023004, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00329, "annualized_volatility": 0.01844, "from_high_reference": -0.004556, "from_low_reference": 0.019562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.6602, "fair_value_reference": 5.448882, "structural_low": 5.572, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout 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0.016512, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016512, "worst_return": 0.016512, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002006, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.015299, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003192, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"energy": 45.600178, "activity_lines": [ 5.677733, 5.675782, 5.664848, 5.660923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.665, "volume": 114253, "typical_volume": 97893.7, "trend": 5.658333, "fair_value": 5.445828, "relative_strength": -2.932379, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.997577, "energy": 26.538827, "activity_lines": [ 5.6728, 5.674509, 5.665938, 5.661409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.678, "volume": 123203, "typical_volume": 93440.5, "trend": 5.6594, "fair_value": 5.447355, "relative_strength": -4.080215, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.833885, "energy": 22.472113, "activity_lines": [ 5.673333, 5.675273, 5.668233, 5.662677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.681, "volume": 104491, "typical_volume": 95427.05, "trend": 5.6602, "fair_value": 5.448882, "relative_strength": -6.102298, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.121751, "energy": 22.870376, "activity_lines": [ 5.675, 5.676382, 5.670519, 5.664071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }