{ "ticker": { "uuid": "203825e7-7539-4b7f-a5a5-0846dc7f540d", "symbol": "MRGR", "name": "PROSHARES MERGER ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.348, "architecture_energy": 40.62, "architecture_maturity": 52.974, "architecture_confidence": 60.824, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.08, "rotation_up": 49.7, "upward_expansion": 78.94, "deceleration": 64.79, "rotation_down": 23.7, "downward_expansion": 5.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.490353, 45.46196, 45.33541, 45.211027 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 45.4643, "trend_reference": 45.056658, "distance_from_trend": 0.009047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.603938, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119702, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.583236, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016019, "excess_performance": -0.109606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009047, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007031, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0145, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085832, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016019, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.94141, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1201, "relative_activity": 0.217886, "balance": 0.94141, "dry_up": 0.780744, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005978, "annualized_volatility": 0.017659, "from_high_reference": -0.008412, "from_low_reference": 0.10317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.056658, "fair_value_reference": 40.603938, "structural_low": 44.478016, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.005484, "positive_rate": 0.775, "directional_follow_through": 0.775, "median_excess_return": -0.009397, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.034273, "worst_return": -0.016268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017229, "positive_rate": 0.916667, "directional_follow_through": 0.916667, "median_excess_return": -0.034851, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.06099, "worst_return": -0.000201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028318, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.060794, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.082977, "worst_return": 0.016019, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.4949, "volume": 3273, "typical_volume": 5275.65, "trend": 44.995816, "fair_value": 40.479229, "relative_strength": -4.644774, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.506718, "energy": 56.411254, "activity_lines": [ 45.490833, 45.414913, 45.273511, 45.149281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.521, "volume": 8032, "typical_volume": 5538.05, "trend": 45.032415, "fair_value": 40.542272, "relative_strength": -5.446701, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.251579, "energy": 47.002238, "activity_lines": [ 45.505947, 45.446932, 45.309409, 45.183164 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.4643, "volume": 1201, "typical_volume": 5512.05, "trend": 45.056658, "fair_value": 40.603938, "relative_strength": -8.583236, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.348256, "energy": 40.620482, "activity_lines": [ 45.490353, 45.46196, 45.33541, 45.211027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }