{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2038b0c1-9e4f-4aac-8d34-005e5552c804", "symbol": "GCM", "name": "GCM Resources Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.747, "architecture_energy": 65.029, "architecture_maturity": 62.664, "architecture_confidence": 92.918, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 27.49, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.51, "rotation_down": 56.57, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.033633, 0.035218, 0.0425, 0.050944 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.034, "trend_reference": 0.061127, "distance_from_trend": -0.443778, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.042101, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.690268, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.690909, "excess_performance": -0.742144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.443778, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1059, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192411, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.555296, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.486903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351072, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.690909, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.000383, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1496652, "relative_activity": 0.303052, "balance": 1.000383, "dry_up": 1.054929, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185701, "annualized_volatility": 0.619604, "from_high_reference": -0.728, "from_low_reference": 0.190893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.061127, "fair_value_reference": 0.042101, "structural_low": 0.02855, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.064064, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.055954, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.871795, "worst_return": -0.360902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.106699, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.104154, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.533333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.273684, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.235062, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 3.425806, "worst_return": -0.483333, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.533333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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5135099.95, "trend": 0.064477, "fair_value": 0.041783, "relative_strength": -47.96735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.929333, "energy": 90.714437, "activity_lines": [ 0.0376, 0.042273, 0.051536, 0.058746 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0315, "volume": 2450510, "typical_volume": 4971769.5, "trend": 0.063777, "fair_value": 0.041857, "relative_strength": -52.417845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.238003, "energy": 92.193146, "activity_lines": [ 0.0351, 0.039573, 0.048756, 0.056619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.031, "volume": 2049143, "typical_volume": 4877242.5, "trend": 0.06306, "fair_value": 0.041928, "relative_strength": -53.27374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.221379, "energy": 91.120234, "activity_lines": [ 0.0331, 0.037218, 0.046171, 0.054504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.036, "volume": 14843159, "typical_volume": 5346718.8, "trend": 0.062127, "fair_value": 0.042027, "relative_strength": -45.932675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.527081, "energy": 73.532294, "activity_lines": [ 0.0336, 0.036209, 0.044322, 0.052758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.034, "volume": 1496652, "typical_volume": 4938595.3, "trend": 0.061127, "fair_value": 0.042101, "relative_strength": -48.690268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.747232, "energy": 65.029354, "activity_lines": [ 0.033633, 0.035218, 0.0425, 0.050944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }