{ "ticker": { "uuid": "203b5561-a551-408b-b2fe-ec322947eb60", "symbol": "SPGR", "name": "Simon Property Group, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.439, "architecture_energy": 59.925, "architecture_maturity": 74.637, "architecture_confidence": 65.357, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.21, "rotation_up": 59.58, "upward_expansion": 83.63, "deceleration": 68.54, "rotation_down": 22.72, "downward_expansion": 10.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 197.626666, 196.343636, 188.571451, 182.686857 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 192.550003, "trend_reference": 175.283208, "distance_from_trend": 0.098508, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 140.459096, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.370862, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.434595, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.159545, "excess_performance": -0.014702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098508, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08062, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.370862, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079959, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000148, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159545, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 1.262136, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041111, "annualized_volatility": 0.226281, "from_high_reference": -0.078267, "from_low_reference": 0.41922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.283208, "fair_value_reference": 140.459096, "structural_low": 154.350006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.019948, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.010651, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.26885, "worst_return": -0.133579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.031325, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.019481, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.283801, "worst_return": -0.14235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028038, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001024, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.36929, "worst_return": -0.278962, "sufficient": true }, { 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178.738637, 174.246666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 189.050003, "volume": 77, "typical_volume": 3.85, "trend": 169.472308, "fair_value": 137.769139, "relative_strength": -3.462584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.050011, "energy": 85.882926, "activity_lines": [ 193.166668, 187.836886, 180.195414, 175.586254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 202.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.85, "trend": 171.011013, "fair_value": 138.451329, "relative_strength": 5.06978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.982219, "energy": 89.9475, "activity_lines": [ 196.48, 191.328143, 182.807533, 177.697717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 201.399994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.85, "trend": 172.523051, "fair_value": 139.127296, "relative_strength": 3.080221, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.247702, "energy": 74.563025, "activity_lines": [ 198.709998, 194.098602, 185.193204, 179.658297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 201.0, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 5.15, "trend": 174.084264, "fair_value": 139.817678, "relative_strength": 2.766651, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.39637, "energy": 66.763571, "activity_lines": [ 199.653332, 196.232844, 187.374827, 181.495519 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 192.550003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.15, "trend": 175.283208, "fair_value": 140.459096, "relative_strength": -4.434595, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.438622, "energy": 59.925268, "activity_lines": [ 197.626666, 196.343636, 188.571451, 182.686857 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }