{ "ticker": { "uuid": "203caa71-5341-43aa-a038-62f1ecb03ddb", "symbol": "BA", "name": "The Boeing Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.232, "architecture_energy": 10.544, "architecture_maturity": 40.836, "architecture_confidence": 45.127, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.11, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 15.7, "deceleration": 56.01, "rotation_down": 43.84, "downward_expansion": 61.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 191.085334, 191.677819, 192.033715, 191.280452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 200.199997, "trend_reference": 192.622334, "distance_from_trend": 0.039339, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 178.060513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.124337, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.569082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026974, "excess_performance": -0.201221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039339, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027984, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.124337, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000982, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04212, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026974, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.493412, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1081, "relative_activity": 2.067317, "balance": 0.493412, "dry_up": 1.611685, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048886, "annualized_volatility": 0.283132, "from_high_reference": -0.073577, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 192.622334, "fair_value_reference": 178.060513, "structural_low": 165.539993, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.021361, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.03708, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.071947, "worst_return": -0.156475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039089, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.124021, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.150094, "worst_return": -0.383052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039668, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.062162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010845, 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"Developing", "return": 0.294108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038138, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021042, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086513, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080613, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165891, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", 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178.545705, "relative_strength": -16.371721, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.923716, "energy": 16.512325, "activity_lines": [ 194.765333, 193.686727, 191.921809, 192.094129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 187.820007, "volume": 497, "typical_volume": 492.95, "trend": 192.771334, "fair_value": 178.520834, "relative_strength": -17.080078, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.120586, "energy": 11.794783, "activity_lines": [ 192.752002, 192.622547, 191.750381, 191.784108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 185.800003, "volume": 575, "typical_volume": 483.5, "trend": 192.838001, "fair_value": 178.323398, "relative_strength": -18.498811, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.216736, "energy": 15.36809, "activity_lines": [ 190.182669, 191.424365, 191.408667, 191.334345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 184.440002, "volume": 1218, "typical_volume": 506.25, "trend": 192.637334, "fair_value": 178.156667, "relative_strength": -18.491276, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.116064, "energy": 32.479021, "activity_lines": [ 187.674669, 190.080365, 190.972191, 190.792538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 200.199997, "volume": 1081, "typical_volume": 522.9, "trend": 192.622334, "fair_value": 178.060513, "relative_strength": -13.569082, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.231771, "energy": 10.543826, "activity_lines": [ 191.085334, 191.677819, 192.033715, 191.280452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }