{ "ticker": { "uuid": "203f9276-4f9b-4f70-9b1d-c4aed7b048ab", "symbol": "MCN", "name": "Madison Covered Call & Equity Strategy Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 62.247, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.579, "architecture_energy": 20.685, "architecture_maturity": 48.15, "architecture_confidence": 75.699, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.36, "rotation_up": 28.81, "upward_expansion": 14.02, "deceleration": 46.17, "rotation_down": 24.37, "downward_expansion": 59.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.619067, 5.585188, 5.635562, 5.661659 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.64, "trend_reference": 5.696093, "distance_from_trend": -0.009848, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.53189, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.019543, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.234983, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028684, "excess_performance": -0.154309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009848, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001871, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.019543, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040135, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.5984, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 362882, "relative_activity": 1.181469, "balance": 0.5984, "dry_up": 0.809049, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021018, "annualized_volatility": 0.104363, "from_high_reference": -0.049086, "from_low_reference": 0.071619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.696093, "fair_value_reference": 5.53189, "structural_low": 5.40212, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.008925, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.005626, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.088234, "worst_return": -0.080424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04259, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027772, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.177799, "worst_return": -0.153866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029147, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.066148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143873, "worst_return": -0.003425, "sufficient": false 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-11.076168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.720076, "energy": 73.296166, "activity_lines": [ 5.52251, 5.591174, 5.657031, 5.683967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.59, "volume": 185893, "typical_volume": 310244.45, "trend": 5.701019, "fair_value": 5.526604, "relative_strength": -9.372603, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.873365, "energy": 65.197621, "activity_lines": [ 5.543463, 5.580071, 5.64784, 5.676866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.5853, "volume": 181707, "typical_volume": 302549.85, "trend": 5.701193, "fair_value": 5.527886, "relative_strength": -8.631085, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.584998, "energy": 35.77051, "activity_lines": [ 5.565502, 5.572613, 5.639735, 5.6694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.64, "volume": 263498, "typical_volume": 302632.45, "trend": 5.6988, "fair_value": 5.530165, "relative_strength": -8.440259, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.327416, "energy": 20.548598, "activity_lines": [ 5.599498, 5.577725, 5.637618, 5.665452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.64, "volume": 362882, "typical_volume": 307144.7, "trend": 5.696093, "fair_value": 5.53189, "relative_strength": -11.234983, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.578784, "energy": 20.685448, "activity_lines": [ 5.619067, 5.585188, 5.635562, 5.661659 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }